NFL Wildcard Games

As I wait for the end of the New Year's Day college games, I'll switch gears and look at the NFL Wildcard games this weekend.

Redskins @ Seahawks
I'm taking the Redskins in an upset. It's a Todd Collins' world. We're just living in it. It's not really Collins, but the way the team has played since he came in. They have gutted out a lot of games that were "must-win". They've done it by running well, playing really good defense and not having mistakes at the quarterback position. If the game comes down to toughness, Seattle won't win. Sure, they went 10-6, but looking at their schedule, they only played two eventual playoff teams - beat Tampa 20-6 and were shut out by Pittsburgh 21-0. Matt Hasselbeck has had a great passing season for them, but he still has some consistency problems. The defense is pretty good, but mostly against bad competition, and their running game is horrible (as the person who wasted a first round pick on Shaun Alexander, I know this well). Maybe I just can't get over them losing 13-10 to Carolina while facing a rookie no-name quarterback making his first start.

Jaguars @ Steelers
As much as it pains me to say it, I think Jacksonville beats Pittsburgh. The Steelers have lost their best running back, Willie Parker, to injury and don't have another with his game breaking ability. They had already lost their starting left tackle, and now they've lost his backup. They lost to Jacksonville at home with those guys a few weeks ago. I don't think the Jags have gotten worse since then. Plus, I don't trust the Pittsburgh coaching staff to come up with a brilliant game plan. After all, they had a shot at the three seed in the final week of the season, but sat several starters which pretty much guaranteed they'd lose to Baltimore. As a three seed, they'd be facing a weaker Tennessee team in the first round, but they didn't even try. Real friggin' smart.

Giants @ Buccaneers
The Giants certainly showed up to play against New England in week 17 even though they had nothing to play for. I think they did it because they wanted to go into the playoffs on a high note which they probably got from a close loss to the Patriots. Still, I'm picking Tampa to take this one. There are things I can say to justify it. Tampa plays really good defense at home. Bucs QB Jeff Garcia is an ultimate "game manager" quarterback who knocked the Giants out of the playoffs last year when he was with Philly. Those don't matter since the Giants actually play better on the road (7-1), and Garcia had more talent on his Eagles' team last year than he does with Tampa this year. No, the reason I'm picking Tampa is personal prejudice. I think Giants' quarterback Eli Manning sucks. Look at the talent on the Giants. They've had a strong defense for years, a solid running game, one of the best tight ends and quality receivers. Yet, no playoff wins with Eli at QB. Eli is one of those quarterbacks who can put up some numbers and make you think he's getting there, but I would never put any money on him to win at crunch time. He's also shockingly inaccurate. A lot of quarterbacks throw interceptions because of bad decisions (ie trying to force the ball to a covered receiver), but a lot of Eli's interceptions are due to him missing the receiver completely. The New England game is a perfect example of the Eli Manning game. He played good early on when all the pressure was on the Patriots. Then the Patriots take the lead and the pressure is on Eli to respond. He missed his receiver so badly that it was intercepted by a defensive back not even covering the receiver. He'll find a way to screw this one up.

Titans @ Chargers
After a slow start to their season, the Chargers are rolling. After a slow start to their season, the Titans have squeaked into the playoffs. Their offense is horrible. The Titans faced a must-win game in week 17 against the Colts who took their starters out in the first half. Yet, Tennessee needed three second half field goals to win 16-10. And they did better (although not much) with backup Kerry Collins in the game. Not the type of play that normally inspires me to think they can go into San Diego and win. Take the Chargers.