College Football

As I sit here watching the start of the college season, I realize college has just as many schmucks calling games as the NFL. South Carolina was punting when a Mississippi State player breaks through and was about to block it. The punter quickly realizes he's not getting the kick off, pulls the ball back at the last second and takes off for a first down. The commentator calls it a fake. That's a heck of a fake if he held the ball out in front of him until the defender was two feet away before taking off. Fortunately, the other guys in the booth did say it was probably an unplanned play.

This is why polls aren't to be trusted. These are the people who vote in them. You should only listen to me if you want to know who will win a national title. Actually, don't listen to me. I look at this year's college football scene, and I can't figure out crap. Last year, it was pretty much Southern Cal and whoever won the Ohio State/Texas game. This year, it's wide open. Take a look at the preseason rankings. Six teams in each poll is getting first place votes. Ohio State is way ahead, but I can't figure out why. They've got most of their offense back, but lost almost all their defense, and they still have a coach who doesn't seem to like offense. A lot of people like Notre Dame, especially opposing quarterbacks. They do get most of their defense back, but they weren't worth a crap to begin with. Texas is still popular, but I saw too many games won solely by Vince Young last year. There's no college freshman who can replace that. Auburn's a trendy pick to win it, but they'll find a way to blow it. The only time they went undefeated, they played a crap schedule the same year two other teams went undefeated. Southern Cal is still hanging around the top of the polls, but I'm not buying the idea that they won't be hurt by the guys who went pro. Their defense actually wasn't very good last year. I don't see it getting better, and I don't think their offense is good enough to overcompensate again. Finally, West Virginia. They are only good when it's unexpected. They always screw up when expectations are high. Actually, any of those teams could go undefeated. Or, as I think, none will. So, I have no clue who will win the National Title, so I will be an unabashed homer and say the Louisville Cardinals. Now on to conference winners.

ACC
You know it's wide open when we last saw Miami, they were getting destroyed in the Peach Bowl, but I'm picking them to win the ACC. Actually, I think that loss was a fluke. I do think they will drop on defense and their offensive line is suspect, but who is going to catch then them in the Coastal Division? Georgia Tech will beat someone they shouldn't but lose too many others to contend. NC, Virginny and Duke aren't good enough. I'm not sure Duke is good enough to win the Ohio Valley Conference. Virginia Tech is the main competition. Again. However, while losing Marcus Vick was good for P.R., there's really no one to take his place. Add 12 other starters lost, and I think VT could drop out of second in the division. Now, who is Miami going to beat from the Atlantic Division for the ACC title? Trendy pick is Clemson, but I'm not buying it. Tommy Bowden is a good enough coach to keep from getting fired every year. They are returning a lot of starters, but they lost quarterback Charlie Whitehurst, who wasn't that good, but the guys they have now couldn't take his job. BC will go to another bowl, while Wake, Maryland and NC State will hold down the bottom of the division with at least one of them getting their coach fired. So, that leaves a stagnating Florida State to lose in the ACC championship.

Big East
Easy one. Louisville. Actually, it's more than my bias talking. West Virginia did beat UL last year, but it was in triple overtime in Morgantown. Trust me, UL is a completely different team at home. I'm more worried about the game in Pittsburgh because it's on the road. Now, that could be stupid on my part, but it wouldn't be the first time, and Lee Corso has made a nice career in broadcasting based on stupid picks. Rutgers could also be a problem for a lot of teams, but they are still a step down. Fortunately, South Florida has to come to the Bluegrass to lose, because they won't contend for the title, but they can screw it up for someone else. UConn, Cincy and Syracuse will be better than last year, but I don't see them threatening the top.

Big Ten
Let's start with who won't make it. Illinois and Indiana suck. Minnesota will start somewhat fast, and drop off drastically. Northwestern... nope. Purdue will be better, but still not good enough. Penn State lost everybody, and they haven't had good back to back seasons in years. Penn State didn't really lose everybody, because Wisconsin lost even more. Some people are picking Michigan, but I'm not falling for them again. No one blows them out, but lately they are good for at least two mind boggling losses. I actually like Michigan State as a dark horse candidate, but that's only because I think Drew Stanton is the best quarterback in the conference. Still, I'm not sure if it's enough to catch Iowa or Ohio State. Iowa does look awful solid with balanced offense and a pretty good defense. Ohio State did lose a lot of people, but it's Ohio State, they'll replace them. I'm not sure Ohio State can win the National Title, but they will win the Big Ten.

Big 12
My first prediction is that the Big 12 Champion will come from the Big 12 South. Why? Because I'm picking Nebraska to win the Big 12 North over Kansas, Iowa State, Missou, Colorado and Kansas State by default. They aren't that good, but they aren't bad enough to fall behind the other five. So, who wins the South? A lot of people liked Oklahoma, but that was until their starting quarterback got kicked off the team for selling enough cars to make a five figure salary on a summer job that he rarely showed up for. Oklahoma State stinks. Baylor is actually better than normal, but their normal is so bad that they still aren't very good. Texas Tech can win a lot of games, but they'll blow a couple, and Texas A&M could very well get their coach fired. Texas will start a freshman quarterback, but the rest of the team is good enough to win the Big 12.

PAC-10
As I said, Southern Cal has lost a lot, so not only do I not pick them to win it all, but I don't pick them to win the PAC-10. It's one thing to lose your quarterback or running back or big play all-purpose player, but it's quite another to lose all three. As I also said, there defense dipped noticeably last year, and I just don't think the replacement offense will be enough to compensate. The team I think wins the conference will have the most balance and the best player in the league. California's defense was the best in the PAC-10, and it goes with one of the best players in the country in Marshawn Lynch. If they can get some good play out of quarterback, they'll be tough to beat. Which means they'll get beat by UT right out of the gate. As for the rest of the conference, Oregon will be near the top, but not near enough. Arizona State will linger, but not do too much damage while UCLA will really drop. Arizona will rise, but not very high, and the States (Washington & Oregon) will fight for bowl eligibility. Stanford and Washington will suck hind tit again.

SEC
Well, Florida wins the East by default. Vandy wasn't very good with Jay Cutler. Without him, they are only a threat to Kentucky who will be close to bowl eligible. They have three should wins out-of-conference (Cent Mich, LA-Monroe, Tex St), and three teams they are as good as or better (Vandy, Miss, Miss St). They won't be bowl eligible because under Brooks, they always lose a game they shouldn't, and they never win a game they shouldn't. Tennessee may bounce back, but that's just to a winning record. Georgia is replacing a lot of players, but most notably at quarterback. I've seen Joe Tereshinski play, and if I was an opponent, I wouldn't be concerned. So Florida wins the East. Will they beat the West champion? No. I don't think they are as good as either of the two contenders - Auburn and LSU. While both teams lost a lot of linemen, receivers and defensive players, Auburn is the safe pick because they don't have a quarterback controversy. Of course, it could be because LSU has two QBs who are better, so I'm taking LSU. I also think Arkansas passes Alabama for third in the division. Ole Miss and Mississippi State both suck and wouldn't contend in CUSA this year.

Non BCS conferences who are pretty good
Conference USA
For the East, I have to go with Central Florida. I think they have the most talent in that division. I think Memphis was more than D'Angelo Williams, but they couldn't win the division with him, so I can't see them higher than second. Southern Miss and East Carolina will be mid-pack. I think Marshall could bounce back after a sub-par season, but not high enough. UAB is in total rebuilding mold. In the East, everyone seems high on UTEP, but I'm not sold on Jordan Palmer. I think they fall behind Tulsa who can put up the points. In fact, they could fall behind Houston if Kevin Kolb can put it together. SMU could improve some, but not to the top. Tulane won't be very good, and Rice will be horrible. I think Central Florida takes down Tulsa for the CUSA title.

Mountain West
It's between TCU and Utah. I think TCU has the better running game which will be the decisive factor. BYU is a throwback to the old WAC teams in that they can score a lot of points, but are hampered by the fact that their opponents will too. San Diego State will move up to the middle where Colorado State is moving down, and Wyoming is staying. Air Force is ironically deficient on defense, while UNLV is a bad team.

WAC
As is every year of recent memory, it's a two team race. Boise State or Fresno State. Even though they struggled at the end of last year, I'm taking Fresno State. Mainly because Boise State is replacing their head coach which could cause a little slippage. Hawaii or Nevada will finish third depending on whether or not Jerry Glanville (yes, that Jerry Glanville) can improve the Hawaiian defense. I'm leaning Nevada third. Louisianna Tech replaces too many good players to be much of a factor. Utah State, Idaho and San Jose State haven't had enough to be a factor in some time. New Mexico State has even less. Actually, I was going to predict New Mex State would at least win a game this year, but they did before I could post this.