NFL Conference Championships

AFC Championship Game
Broncos vs. Steelers
Much has been made of the fact that the Steelers could be the first sixth seed to advance to the Super Bowl. Well, they aren't you're normal sixth seed. For one, they had a better record than the fourth seed Patriots. They had the same record as the the third seed Bengals. If not for Ben Roethlisberger missing four games, they probably don't lose those two overtime games and win the AFC North making them the third seed. This is obviously not the same team that had a mid-year three game losing streak. The question is whether they can go to Denver and win in a stadium the Broncos haven't lost at all year. Of course, the Broncos best win at home was over the Patriots who were going through their alternating win/loss stretch. They only beat Baltimore 12-10 in December, so I'm not all that concerned with their home field. The Steelers need to be more concerned with their blitzes not getting to Plummer. Their corners could struggle with Rod Smith and Ashley Lelie in single coverage, so getting to Plummer is a must. Both teams like to run the ball, and both are good at stopping it. So, it could come down to quarterbacks which is why the Steelers will win. Come on. I don't care how mistake free Jake Plummer has played this year. He's still Jake Plummer. It's not like the Broncos offense really lit it up against New England. Of their five scoring drives, four started in New England territory. Three went for fewer than 15 yards. Actually, you could make the argument that all four were less than 15 yards since the other was 40, but the ball went from the 40 to the 1 yard line on a rather iffy pass interference call. Even a couple of the Patriot turnovers were somewhat fluky. Punter Todd Sauerbrun forcing a fumble? I don't care if he was accused of using steroids, that's fluky. So, while Denver was winning while getting every break, the Steelers were winning while the Colts were getting every break. In the clutch, don't take Jake.

NFC Championship
Seahawks vs. Panthers
Everything seems set up for the Seahawks. They've got homefield where they always play well. Even if Julius Peppers plays, he's going to be playing with a bum shoulder. No DeShaun Foster at all. Nothing against Nick Goings who has played well in relief before, but he doesn't have breakaway speed, and more importantly, who spells him? Sure, Shaun Alexander suffered a concussion last week, but I really don't think it was a bad one. I've seen guys with concussions still look loopy in post-game interviews. Alexander looked fine on the sideline before the half. Besides, it just showed that Matt Hasselbeck can step it up and win without Alexander. So, Seattle should be the easy winner, right? Wrong. I have to look at what these teams did last week. I don't think for a second that Seattle could have played like they did last week and beaten Chicago. Yet, Carolina did, and made the Chicago defense look silly. And at this point, I wouldn't pick against Jake Delhomme and Steve Smith in any playoff game short of the Super Bowl.

Random NFL thoughts

The divisional playoff round had some great games. Most playoff rounds have at least one blowout. This weekend really didn't.

I'm still trying to figure out the non-call during the Steelers/Colts game when the play was blown dead at the snap, but the referees picked up the flag saying there was no penalty because the Steelers didn't move and the Colts didn't touch the Steelers. Well, it looked like Alan Faneca probably did move and the Colts did make contact as their entire defensive line was in the neutral zone pointing. The question is - if no one jumped on either side, why blow it dead? Refs is that game certainly didn't cover themselves in glory.

Speaking of which, I'm a little surprised the NFL actually came out and said the referee was wrong when he overturned Troy Polamalu's interception. What else was he going to do? Everyone except the referee knew it was an interception. I'm just curious if they would have admitted it if the Colts had ended up winning the game. I've always found it a stretch to believe NFL referees would consciously make a call to favor a team, so I can't really support Joey Porter's contention that the overturn was done to help the Colts. However, I will say that I was happy Mike Vanderjagt's last minute kick was way wide. No reason to give them a chance to see a close miss as a good score. Of course, it might be better to think they were corrupt rather than really stupid or drunk.

I've seen some writers (although fewer than I thought) point to the irony that Mike Vanderjagt, who missed the potential game tying field goal, had called out Peyton Manning a couple of years back saying they wouldn't win because Peyton didn't have enough fire. Well, I'm taking Vanderjagt's side. Yes, Vanderjagt missed the field goal (I won't get into the fact that one touchdown shouldn't have been on the board), but poor play throughout the game (and pretty much every playoff loss by the Colts) by Manning meant that they needed the field goal just for overtime. As I mentioned in an earlier post, Manning's poor decision making meant the field goal was longer than it had to be.

While I'll admit the sight of the ball on the ground with no Steeler near it made me want to throw up. Especially since I wasn't sure where Ben Roethlisberger was and the guy who picked it up was a cornerback. However, I shouldn't have been too concerned that Nick Harper was going the distance. After all, how fast can you run a day after your wife slices open your knee? Roethlisberger made a great play, but the best defensive play by an offensive player has to be New England's Ben Watson who ran down Champ Bailey to knock him out at the one. How often is there a 100 yard interception return that doesn't result in a touchdown? How can a tight end run down a cornerback when he has to run about 130 yards to the corner's 100?

Some think Bailey fumbled the ball through the end zone which should have given the Patriots the ball at the 20. I thought replays were inconclusive, but I wouldn't care either way. That is still one of the stupidest rules in a league with many stupid rules. Why should the team without the ball get it on a fumble that they never have possession of just because it goes through the end zone? If the ball is knocked out at the one yard line, the defense doesn't get it if they never had possession.

While I hate to agree with Michael Irvin, he wasn't far off when he said halfway through the season that Steve Smith should be the MVP. Actually, it's really bad that he didn't even get a vote for MVP. They'll really need him in the next round with DeShaun Foster breaking his ankle. Do you think Foster might be injury prone?

Non playoff question. What were the Packers thinking of when they hired Mike McCarthy as their new head coach? Sure, he was the quarterback coach in 1999, but that was the Ray Rhodes season when the offense wasn't too swift. He followed that with five seasons in New Orleans (just what you need with Aaron Rodgers as your future QB, the guy who developed Aaron Brooks) before spending last year as the offensive coordinator of the 49'ers. Yeah, he did a great job with their offense. Apparently, his main qualification is that he would be grateful to the GM for hiring him.

One of the funniest stories of the offseason is that the Eagles' gave permission to Drew Rosenhaus to try to find a trade for Terrell Owens. Who is going to trade for him when they would have to pick up his contract? The Eagles can't keep him, and he's due a roster bonus of $7.5 million in March so you know he'll be on the market by then. It actually sounds like desperation on Owens' part. He and Rosenhaus may realize that he isn't getting a better deal than the one he had with Philly. Get a trade and the new team has to pick up that contract. Ironic that Owens' behavior has lessened his own value and that of his agent.

Here's a great story. USC coach Pete Carroll would only give his blessing to Reggie Bush to go pro after getting assurances that the Texans would take him with the first pick. Real sweet, Pete. Would you not have given your blessing if the Texans said they were interested in Vince Young? Bush is still going in the top three. It's not like he's a quarterback. If he went third (worst case scenario), going back to USC for another year would just add another year of hits to his body just to move up (at best) two spots.

Actually, a couple of sources (profootballtalk.com and Pro Football Weekly) have mentioned rumors of a trade by the Texans to get Ricky Williams from Miami. One says it would be for David Carr. That would probably make Vince Young the first pick. However, does Houston need an all Longhorn backfield to sell tickets?

NFL Playoffs Round Two

Denver 27 New England 13
Those damned Denver Broncos. Imagine the nerve of them disrespecting Tom Brady and the Patriots by actually beating them in the playoffs. I hope Brady learned his lesson. Don't whine about disrespect and then play a lousy game. Sure, he had 341 yards passing, but he also had two interceptions, and built up those yards without really doing much. The Patriots only scored 13 points. Of course, he had some help as his teammates fumbled away the ball three times. Of course, I see a certain irony there. The Patriots "dynasty" began with the "tuck rule" BS that never should have overruled an obvious Brady fumble. Now it ends because they couldn't hang onto the ball. Plus, they weren't that good this year anyway.

Seattle 20 Washington 10
I think this game showed why Seattle was the best team in the NFC and possibly the league. Everything was set up for the Redskins. Shaun Alexander was knocked out early. Their defense was playing good. Mark Brunell actually threw for over 200 more yards than he did in their wild card game. Yet, they never really were in the game against Seattle. Why? Seattle did miss Alexander, but they had other weapons. For one, their defense is very good. Matt Hasselbeck has made himself into one of the top quarterbacks in the league. It doesn't hurt that Darrell Jackson is back and playing well. Besides, it was rather silly of "pundits" to take the Redskins' wild card win over the Bucs to mean much. There defense played good, but Tampa played poorly which is why they won.

Carolina 29 Chicago 21
I didn't think I would be saying this, but I can't believe Chicago's defense let them down. But it did. I thought the Panthers had a good shot at winning, but only because their defense was also good. However, Rex Grossman played a good game after a slow start, but he overcame early drops to move the team pretty well. Thomas Jones had a low yards per attempt average, but he got the tough yardage. If you had told me Chicago would score 21 points, I would have thought they had the game. I didn't think the Panthers' offense would do what it did. Actually, it wasn't all of their offense. The running game wasn't much even before DeShaun Foster got hurt. It was Jake Delhomme and Steve Smith. Say what you will about Tom Brady, but Delhomme has shown up in big games. His first year as a starter, he led the Panthers to the Super Bowl where he threw for over three hundred yards and three touchdowns in their tight shootout loss. Last year, after a bad start (1-7) caused by lots of injuries, the Panthers put the ball in Delhomme's hands and went 6-2 over the rest of the year and almost made the playoffs. Because of him and Smith, I wouldn't count them out against the Seahawks.

Pittsburgh 21 Indianapolis 18
The game I really wanted to talk about. I was really hoping that the Colts' playoff choke job would be this week instead of next. You knew it was coming. Tony Dungy and Peyton Manning on the same team. The two biggest chokers in big games. Actually, even though I thought the Colts were the favorite, I couldn't understand why so many people thought the Steelers didn't have a shot. Sure, the Steelers didn't look sharp in a game earlier at Indy, but it was the offense. Ben Roethlisberger was in his first game off knee surgery and looked rusty. However, considering how poorly the offense played, the Steelers defense was fine. They gave up two touchdowns and four field goals. One touchdown and three field goal drives started in Pittsburgh territory. So, I figured the Pittsburgh defense would be OK this time around. They are good at masking coverage which is where Peyton Manning struggles. He reads game film better than anyone, so if you can hide what you're doing before the snap, he has trouble with it. The Pittsburgh offense was playing very well at the end of the season, so I was hoping it would carry over. It did. However, the real reason for the victory was the Manning/Dungy choke duo. Look at the ending. The Colts had pulled within three because of a BS overturned interception call. Manning had the ball on his own 18. His next three plays were a pass that barely got 2 yards, a sack and an overthrow. Then he was sacked again on fourth down. Those sacks later led him to criticize his line while not talking about how many of his passes weren't even close to the intended receiver. He gets the ball back because of a fumble by Jerome Bettis (first of the year which thankfully was saved by a Roethlisberger shoe-string tackle) and gets them to second and 2 on the Pittsburgh 28 with 31 seconds left and two timeouts. What does he do? He throws for the endzone twice (one was almost intercepted) which forces a 46 yard field goal which missed. While I would expect the league's all time leading field goal kicker (by percentage) to make a 46 yarder, why not go short (or run) to get the first and use your timeouts? Blame the kicker all you want, but that decision making was inexcusable. They had two yards to go. Why go for the home run? Get it to overtime and go for the win.

Stay tuned for my Conference Championship game picks.

NFL Wild Card Weekend

Time has been at a premium, but I couldn't hold back from commenting on the NFL playoffs.

Washington 17 Tampa Bay 10
Redskin fans should thank God that Edell Shepherd dropped that catch with about three minutes left. The Redskins offense was horrible. If the Bucs had tied the game, I'm not sure Washington would have had any chance to score. They might have been better off under the old rule that let the team scored on to either receive a kickoff or kick the ball themselves (the idea was that you kicked off and played for a turnover on your opponents side of the field). It wasn't like Tampa's offense was that great, and Chris Simms is always a screw-up waiting to happen. That dropped pass was the only good one I saw from him. Yes, as many Simms' apologists pointed out, his two crucial interceptions (one lead to a TD, the other ended their last chance) were tipped, but so what? The idea is to get the passes to your receivers without them being tipped. I'm not surprised the Skins went conservative on offense once they got a lead. When has Chris Simms ever showed up for a big game?

Carolina 23 New York Giants 0
Speaking of quarterbacks and big game flops, who else guessed that Eli Manning would follow his brother in that category? 113 yards and three interceptions wasn't too pretty. As a longtime Steelers fan, I'm not surprised by the Plaxico Burress disappearing act. His tendency to quit when things weren't going well is a reason they had no real inclination to pay him the money he wanted. The Giants were downright horrible. Their longest drive of the game was 6 plays for 31 yards, and the Carolina 39 yard line was the farthest they got downfield. Their second half drives ended on punt, interception, interception, interception and fumble. I think the best part was Tiki Barber saying the Giants were outcoached. Normally, I don't like a player who didn't have a good game (like Barber) calling out others, but I can't stand Tom Coughlin so I think it's funny. And he's right. It didn't appear the Giants' staff had any clue what was going on.

New England 28 Jacksonville 3
I like Jack Del Rio. And I like Byron Leftwich. But I think Del Rio made a mistake starting Leftwich. Actually, I don't think that was the mistake, because Leftwich is a better quarterback than Garrard. I think Del Rio should have given Leftwich some serious playing time in their last game of the year, so he wouldn't have been so rusty. Actually, I think it sucks that New England was the host team just because they won their division. Yes, the Jags had a fairly easy schedule, but they won more games than every team in the league except Indy, Seattle and Denver. They won two more games than the Patriots who were playing in the AFC East which was the worst division in the league. Why should the Jags have to play the first game on the road in 20 degree weather? They looked pretty inept on offense, so they probably still would have lost, but their defense was playing well, and who knows? Don't you think there is a big difference between playing a January game in Boston and Jacksonville?

Pittsburgh 31 Cincinnati 17
Would Cincinnati have won if Carson Palmer hadn't been hurt (and no, it was not a dirty hit)? Their chances would have been better, but I wouldn't say they would have necessarily won. While they may have won the last game against the Steelers, it was by eight points. The game before that was in Cincinnati and the Steelers won 27-13. Plus, in their last two home games, the Bengals haven't scored as many as 31 points against weaker teams like the Bills and Browns. Ironically, I think the Bengals' offense doesn't play as well on the turf at Paul Brown Stadium. They're built like a dome team. It's a moot point anyway since injuries are part of the game. The Bengals wouldn't even have won the division if Ben Roethlisberger hadn't been out three games. Besides, the Bengals are lucky to have Jon Kitna who is one of the better backups in the league. They scored more points in the first half with him than they did the entire first meeting of this season. And it appears that something may have happened at halftime with the Bengals' class clown that may have helped their offensive offense of the second half.