NFL Draft - Stretch Run

They've already had the longest first round in history, but I think the third round should go a bit more quickly. Actually, to start off with picks are going so quick that the commentators are falling behind.

Truth be told, my main concern in this round is whether or not Michael Bush gets drafted or not. Atlanta drafts 11th in this round, so the question is whether Bobby Petrino takes him. As I said before, I doubt Petrino has final say on the pick, and with Warrick Dunn and Jerious Norwood on the roster, the Falcons may not be in the market for running back. Of course, having those two mean the Falcons could take Bush without the concern of needing him to play too quickly. But they may have other needs they want to address.

Sean Salisbury is usually a moron, but he made a good point about Amobi Okoye when Mark May said Okoye needs to bulk up. Salisbury asked why a 6'2" 302 pound guy needs to get bigger.

Well, Atlanta passed on Bush which wasn't unexpected. Looking ahead, his best chance to go this round are probably Philly or Chicago as both teams have two picks. Philadelphia really could use a big back to complement Brian Westbrook, and I know they've talked to Bush recently. Chicago (foolishly) traded Thomas Jones so they could be interested in getting another back to spell Curtis Benson.

Well, they didn't take him. This is problematic because I want Bush to go in the third round, but the only team left who would probably take a running back is Oakland, and I don't want to see him go there. Oakland didn't take him either so he's going to be a day two pick. It's a damn shame too. I was so happy when he said he was going back to UL for his senior year, but now I wish he'd left then. He probably would have been a second round pick instead of waiting until the second day due to breaking his leg in the first game of the year. Some UL fans think he should have taken a redshirt year and gone back to UL for next season, but I don't think that would have made that much of a difference. The belief is that he probably wouldn't be completely healthy until the start of the season which means he would miss most of fall practice and most likely be out of shape. In that condition, it's unlikely he could move back into the first round. He would also be taking a risk of another injury which could really drop him in next year's draft.

That was a long draft. Over 11 hours. I'd like to do it again tomorrow for rounds 4-7, but I've got to drive to Louisville so the best I can probably do is a final recap tomorrow night.

NFL Draft - Round Two

Round two begins with an interview of Bill Belichick. I promptly ignored it. There's a rumor being floated that this will be Mel Kiper's last draft for ESPN. I find that very shocking. Kiper does have some problems. For one, his hair is somewhat scary. For another, he never admits he made a bad call. His dead certain belief that he is always right can be somewhat annoying. However, the flip side of that is it makes for entertaining TV. Since his main function is the draft, he doesn't feel the need to suck up to team management. So, he'll call out a team for a bad decision whether it's the history of the Jets' draft or the time he got into a big argument with one of the Irsays in Indy when they took Trev Alberts. Plus, Kiper knows his stuff. Even if I disagree with him, he always has something more than gut to go on when he makes his projections. I'm just surprised they would let him go. He's been there since a minor sports cable channel decided to do a bare bones draft production as filler. Personally, I think Kiper's notoriety helped turn the NFL Draft into the big event it has become. If he leaves and goes to the NFL Network, there's a good chance I'll watch there show instead. Especially if they bring in some clown like Todd McShay of Scouts Inc. in his place. ESPN already has too many schmucks like Kornholer and Salisbury on their draft show.

And there goes Alan Branch to Arizona.

Always like the reactions when a team goes completely off the reservation like the Eagles did with Houston Cougar quarterback Kevin Kolb who many viewed as the sixth best QB. Mort did say that some teams had really liked Kolb. Hey Mort, thanks for mentioning that after he's drafted. Most pundits had Kolb behind Drew Staunton (Mich St), John Beck (BYU) and Trent Edwards (Stanford), but I watched all of them except Edwards play several games (Stanford stank and played late most of the time), and I can't see any of them being that much ahead of the others. Actually, I didn't think they were that far behind Quinn and Russell. I guess it's what you like. Wonder what Donovan McNabb thinks of this?

San Diego just traded four third to fifth round picks to move up in the second round to take a safety Eric Weddle. Huh. That seems like a lot.

Now, we get Miami taking quarterback John Beck which explains why Miami didn't take Quinn in the first round. Actually, it doesn't because a lot of people thought Beck would be gone by now. Wouldn't they have felt stupid if the Eagles had taken him instead of Kolb. I still can't believe the Dolphins took a number two receiver/punt returner with the ninth pick. It did lead to a funny clip of Miami coach Cam Cameron facing off a mob of angry Miami fans who weren't too happy they took Ginn over Quinn. Maybe they should have drafted Brandon Meriweather to fight them off.

I knew it couldn't last. Keyshawn is comparing himself (favorably) to every receiver being drafted. Then Dwayne Jarrett gets drafted by Keyshawn's Panthers, and it comes out that he said off camera he hoped they would so he could show his fellow Southern Cal receiver the ropes. I forgot how altruistic Keyshawn could be. What would be funny is if Jarrett so impresses the Panthers in training camp that they cut Keyshawn.

I just noticed something. The Colts traded a fourth round pick this year and next year's first round pick to move into the middle of the second round and draft Tony Ugoh who is apparently too skinny (at 301 pounds) to be a right tackle, lacks athleticism for left tackle and doesn't really seem to like playing football. If your trade involves giving up a first round pick, shouldn't that be to draft someone with first round talent?

So, Detroit didn't trade Mike Williams to Tennesee. They traded him to Oakland. I guess Al Davis has a fetish for lazy wide receivers. Since they are going to probably trade Randy Moss, this means Russell will be throwing to famous flop Mike Williams, ex-quarterback Ronald Curry and maybe Jerry Porter if he isn't suspended for most of the season again. I'm predicting Pro Bowl right off the bat for Russell.

ESPN is run by geniuses. They just did a 30 second sports update, and they led with a report on JaMarcus Russell being the first pick in the draft. Obviously most of the people watching the second round of the NFL Draft probably didn't know who went first.

ABC is pimping the Hell out of their Bingo game show which will probably be popular and in turn make me contemplate putting the parental lock on ABC. It doesn't look too realistic, because I didn't see any chain smoking old biddies.

Andy Reid says taking Kevin Kolb isn't about Donovan McNabb which means it's probably about McNabb. Sadly, Ron Jaworski is now having flashbacks to when the Eagles drafted Randal Cunningham as his replacement. Finally, Mort points out that McNabb is chronically hurt, so taking a quarterback is probably not a bad idea.

NFL Draft - Round One

Unlike last year when I typed as it went along and then posted all of it at the end of the day, I think I'll add and repost as I go along.

Well, it's the pregame show. We’re at Radio City Music Hall which became the choice two years ago when Madison Square Garden was dumped after their management opposed a new downtown stadium for the Jets. In the studio, we have the usual ESPN guys in Mel Kiper Jr., Chris Berman and Chris Mortenson. They’ve also got Steve Young which is good because he is one of the smarter, more articulate ex-players. Unfortunately, we’ve also got Keyshawn Johnson who isn’t one of the smarter, more articulate players. He does fit in though, because he was a former number one pick who reinforces my belief that number one picks generally don’t match the hype (and money) that come out. Keyshawn has had a long, solid career with a few good seasons, but most were average at best. Take a look at the all time number one picks. Many are well known, but how many in the last 25 years became big stars? I’m looking at maybe seven unless you add the Irving Fryars of the world.


Crap, Tony Kornheiser is here, too. Ears prepare to bleed.

Did someone actually boo Bruce Smith and Michael Vick during the Virginia Tech tribute? Actually, I’m shocked Vick was at the draft with his pending legal troubles for dog-fighting. Well, the Raiders are now on the clock, and I’m actually happy they didn’t come to a deal before the draft. It makes things more interesting if they don’t actually take JaMarcus Russell, and contrary to what “pundits” are saying, he doesn’t “have” to be the number one pick. In fact, I think the Raiders would be smart to try o trade the pick, because it’s just nuts to me to draft someone strictly on potential when you’ll end up paying big bucks for someone with only about a 25% chance they’ll be a big star. Hey, they just showed Russell throw the ball through the uprights from his knees on the 50 yard line. I haven't seen that done since they showed tape of Kyle Boller doing it when he was f irst round pick. How did that work out?

And it’s anti-climactic. The Raiders draft Russell who they didn’t call until after they took him because they wanted to be mysterious, I guess. Their motto has changed from “Just Win Baby” to “Lose, But Keep People Guessing Who We’re Going To Draft”. I guess Davis couldn’t call Russell earlier because he was lobbying the NFL to schedule two games against Notre Dame next year.

Detroit takes the best player in the draft in Calvin Johnson even though a lot of people thought they should take anyone but a receiver because of recent problems they've had drafting receivers early. Which is beyond stupid. Of the three receivers Detroit has taken early, Roy Williams has turned out fine. The other two flopped because Charles Rogers was a junkie and Mike Williams had a short track record before sitting out a year due to eligibility problems. That was a dumb pick, but it would be even dumber to pass up the best player in the draft (at a need position) just because you're afraid of some cosmic force destroying receivers drafted by the Lions. At worst, he can be traded.

Interesting. The Browns take left tackle Joe Thomas which is actually a pretty safe pick. Their line sucked, and a rookie quarterback would get killed. Small consolation for Brady Quinn who will probably stick around the green room a bit longer. Which sucks because his girlfriend is so white that she is almost translucent which hurts my eyes every time the camera goes to them.

And now we get interviews by Suzy Kolber who is the absolute worst interviewer in sports.

The Gaines Adams pick by Tampa may be traded, but it makes the next few picks Hell for Brady Quinn. Arizona and (probably) Washington aren't looking for a quarterback nor is Atlanta at 8. Which means unless someone trades down to get him, it's either Minnesota (7th) or Miami (9th). It means a loss of millions, but Young was right when he said it could be better in the long run. The Vikings have a good line, and Miami has good skill players so he may not get ruined early like so many early draft picks.

I was waiting for it, and here it is. They were arguing whether or not Arizona would take tackle Levi Brown because they need offensive line help. Mark May argued that the number five pick was too high to take him. Brown should be taken somewhere between 10-15. That's retarded. In the NFL draft, the number five player is not that much different from the number 10 and might even be worse. It's nice to say the Cardinals should trade down and grab Brown later, but that's assuming a) someone will trade with you and b) he'll still be there. The Cardinals took Brown and should have if they thought he was top 12 talent and plays a position of need.

Next up are Laron Landry to Washington, Adrian Peterson to Minnesota and defensive end Jamaal Anderson to Atlanta while Quinn still waits. They made the point that Peterson is totally healthy, but injuring both your shoulder and collarbone at two different times seems indicative of a problem. I'm looking at a couple of other sites and one said Amobi Okoye was in trouble because his college coach Bobby Petrino didn't want him. How stupid is that? To begin with, Petrino doesn't have final say because he has an involved owner and GM. Second, Petrino is a shark who is going to take a player he needs (defensive end) over a position he doesn't need as much (defensive tackle). It wasn't like the Falcons took another DT over Okoye.

Wow, the Dolphins take Ted Ginn instead of Brady Quinn meaning Quinn could drop to the bottom of the round. That means two things; Trent Green is going to be Miami's next quarterback and the Dolphins are nuts. I'm not projecting great things for Quinn, but Green is going to be 37 in the fall and coming off a major head injury. They have some talent on offense but probably not enough to where Trent Green can get the over the top. And for Ginn? I thought he would be lucky to be in the top 20. I'm not sure what Miami thinks it's doing. As for Quinn, I'd leave. Leaving would be embarrassing, but sitting for another four hours until the mid-20s with a camera in your face after every pick would be worse. He better hope someone trades up to grab him.

And here goes Amobi Okoye. He was a very popular player at Louisville. And not just because he knew where to get some good weed. Mark May rips the pick. Well, he's probably still mad because he's picked Pitt to beat Louisville the past two years and they couldn't get within 20 points.

Why is ABC running ads for Desperate Housewives during the draft? Is that really their target audience?

Smart move by the NFL to get Quinn into a private room for his long wait. I've never really understood why they keep bringing them after the Aaron Rogers fiasco when he dropped a ton. Young doesn't understand why teams drafting later who might need a quarterback aren't looking to trade up with Quinn available so late. Why? He could fall to them.

The 49'ers just took Ole Miss LB Patrick Willis who I predict will be the Defensive Rookie of the Year for 2007. Linebackers seem to transition to the NFL a bit quicker than other positions. Plus, the 49'ers defense sucked really bad meaning there are plenty of tackles to be made.

Wait a second. The knock on Quinn is that he has accuracy issues and showed up small in big games? JaMarcus Russell was very erratic until the Sugar Bowl, and LSU didn't even win the SEC West last year. You know why? Ten points against Florida. Three points against Auburn. Until the Sugar Bowl, Russell didn't just come up small in big games. He disappeared. It's mind boggling that he is now seen as such a sure thing. Of course, the knock on Peyton Manning was that he never won a big game in college.

The Jets traded up to get cornerback Darrelle Revis, and I saw something unusual - Jets fans cheering their draft pick. Although one of them looked like a complete chump when the name was called. The look on his face made me think he didn't even know who Revis was. Yet, he was cheering. Usually Jets fans boo even when they recognize the name.

I thought they were putting Quinn in a private room. Yet, here is Suzy Kolber interviewing him about his free fall. Of course, the draft is in New York, so Suzy is probably trying to avoid Joe Namath.

The Steelers draft OLB Lawrence Timmons out of Florida State. I'm officially unenthused. A one year starter at Florida State who was honorable mention All-ACC. Not first team All-ACC. Not second team. Honorable mention. The Bengals get lucky as cornerback Leon Hall is still available. They probably didn't expect him to still be around this late so despite his lack of arrest record, Cincinnati grabs him.

Well, after a couple nondescript picks, the Browns save Brady Quinn by trading up to get him. Actually, I think KC would have taken him with the next pick. It's been some type of turnaround for him. The crowd booed him lustily (it's not what you think, Phil) when he was introduced before the draft started. He was loudly cheered when he was finally drafted four and a half hours later. That's real sweet. Cleveland gave up next year's first round pick and a second this year. Since they rated Quinn a top ten pick and considered him at three, the first round pick doesn't matter (and another bad year gets the Browns' coach and GM fired). As Berman said, it's just a year early. So, in reality, they gave up a second round pick to essentially get two top ten picks. That only becomes bad if Quinn flops or next year's first round deep and talented or two first round picks aren't enough to get them out of the cellar (a distinct possibility). Perception begins to look bad when the Cowboys are drafting in your top five slot. Of course, Mortenson isn't helping things by comparing the trade to the one the Ravens did to get Kyle Boller. About the only thing Boller has done is video himself throwing a football 60 yards from his knees. Just like JaMarcus Russell.

I just remembered an little tidbit. Brady Quinn is represented by "super-agent" Tom Condon. Matt Leinart fired Leigh Steinberg a couple of weeks before last year's draft because he was worried he was sliding down draft boards after he was originally expected to be top three. Yet, with Condon, he dropped to 10th. So, in the past two first rounds, Condon has represented a free falling quarterback. Maybe they should drop "super-agent" when they mention Condon.

Are the Patriots going to get heat for drafting Brandon Meriweather? I mean, aren't the Patriots supposed to only have high character players? The irony is that the NFL has been pushing better character, but this year, the draft class doesn't have a lot of guys with those issues. Meriweather is one that does. He had the big Miami/FLA Int. on-field brawl and a gun incident. Actually, to be honest, I wouldn't be that concerned with the gun incident. Someone just shot his friend, and he fired back. What was he supposed to do? Wait until the guy shoots him? They say the concern is that he even had a gun. Well, my guess is that Meriweather and his friend are pretty damn glad he had one. Now, I do think the brawl is a concern. He didn't just fight. He waited until a teammate took a guy down and then stomped on the guy's back. Pretty bush league if you ask me.

Dallas and Philly just made a trade. Isn't that one of the signs of the Apocalypse?

Maybe the Falcons should have taken Brady Quinn.

The Saints take University of Tennessee receiver Robert Meachem, but when they showed his draft party, he didn't look all that excited. It must be terrible to be a wide receiver drafted by a team that likes to run a high powered offense and needs a replacement for their long time top receiver Joe Horn. Of course, maybe he agrees with Steve Young that the Titans should have taken Meachem at 19. Could be true, but when I heard the rumor why the Titans passed on him, I figured he was better off anywhere but Tennessee. Word is the Titans are trying to trade for Detroit receiver Mike Williams. The same Mike Williams that the Lions have been ridiculed for drafting in the first place. With those types of decisions being made, do you really want to be there?

Well, we're at the end of the first round as Indianapolis takes Anthony Gonzalez. So, what can we take away from the first round? Well, LSU had four players taken. How come they finished third in the SEC West? Oh right, their "can't miss" quarterback managed a total of one touchdown drive against Florida and Auburn. So, what was the biggest surprise of the first round? Well, Alan Branch has disappeared. At one point this DT from Michigan was seen in the top 10 of all the mock drafts. Granted, he was beginning to drop based on a complete lack of work ethic and the possibilty that he was playing on broken legs. However, I went back to several mock drafts and the lowest I saw him was Kiper at 21 (Clark Judge at CBS Sportline didn't have him in the first round, but it's Clark Judge so he probably just forgot). Brady Quinn's drop was quite surprising. I'm still not sure Quinn's going to be a star, but if I had to bet my life on which quarterback has the longer career, I would pick Quinn over Russell. Yet, Quinn's drop wasn't the biggest surprise to me. The biggest surprise was that Keyshawn Johnson did OK as an analyst. When I saw him, I had visions of another Michael Irvin who forcefully inserted himself into every discussion while making absolutely no sense and screamed "MEMEMEMEME". While I didn't agree with a lot of what Keyshawn said, he only had a few moments of self-centeredness and really only engaged in debate when asked directly for his opinion.

More Pre-draft Thoughts

I've bitched about it before and I'm sure I'll bitch about it again, but the biggest thing wrong with the NFL is the rookie salary pool. Actually, I'm for a rookie salary cap, but the pool is completely out of control. Now, I don't have a problem with the money professional athletes as long as they earn it. I do hate when players sign a big contract and suddenly stop playing hard, but I'm not going to sit here and wonder why a pro football player makes millions while a teacher makes a lot less. To be honest, there are a lot more people in America who can teach school (and a lot who really can't, but do anyway) than can play high level sports. Actually, I think teacher pay is off base. Thanks to teacher's unions, a second grade teacher and a high school physics teacher with the same amount of time will earn about the same salary in a school district even though I think teaching high school physics is a lot more demanding. But I digress. Plenty of people can play basketball, but you might notice the lack of an audience for games at the Y. Besides, in the case of NFL players, they will most likely pay a long term price whether from brain mush or the inability to walk normally. I remember watching the Heisman Trophy ceremony some years back, and they showed previous winners coming in. Jay Berwanger was the original winner in 1935, and when he walked in, he moved a lot more easily than winners from the 70s and 80s even though he was 40 or 50 years older. That's because pro football in the 1930s was less lucrative for a University of Chicago grad than private business, so Berwanger never smashed up his body by playing pro ball.

Besides, we live in a capitalist society. Professional football is very popular which means showing it on TV leads to big ratings. Networks can charge a lot more money to advertisers who want to get their product in front of as many people as possible. The NFL knows the networks get a lot for ads during their games, so they make the networks pay a lot to show them. Add a mega-TV deal with thousands of fans in the seats, merchandise out the wazoo and assorted other sources of income and you get lots of money going into the game. Since the players are the ones people are watching, I have no problem with the bulk of the money going to them. It's no different than an actor making $20 million for a movie, but that never gets as bad a rap as pro athletes making that kind of cash. It's real easy to say no one deserves millions of dollars to play sports, but I'm not going to be a hypocrite. My job doesn't deserve a salary of a million dollars, but if the company I work for stupidly offered me a million dollars to do it, there's no way I would turn it down and say I didn't deserve it. My guess is most of the people who bitch about players' salaries would do the same thing.

No, my problem with the rookie pool in the NFL is the same problem I have with players who don't earn their money. It skews things. Like any other (non-government related) career, a professional athlete should be paid based on his ability in relation to his peers. If you are one of the best quarterbacks in the league, your next contract should reflect that. The problem with rookies is how much more the number 1 pick makes than guys taken just a few picks later even though as I pointed out yesterday, the draft is somewhat of a crapshoot. With an overall salary cap, a number 1 pick who is a bust will be a long term problem because that player usually gets a large amount of money in the form of a signing bonus which is guaranteed money prorated over the life of the contract. TECHNICAL EXPLANATION ALERT: For example, a player signs an $8 million contract over 4 years with $4 million guaranteed as a signing bonus. Even though the bonus is paid up front, it is prorated over the life of the contract for salary cap purposes which means the player counts $2 million against the cap each year. However, if he's a bust and the team cuts him after his first year, the remainder of the prorated signing bonus counts that year. So, instead of $2 million against the cap, he will count $6 million and won't be playing for them. That's money that can't be used on other players. It becomes more problematic with number 1 picks because their guaranteed money is huge. Last year, Mario Williams had $26.5 million guaranteed on a six year contract. If he doesn't last six years, that's a lot of dead money on the team's cap. So, teams are actually forced to keep them.

The big problem for me is that the reason the draft is a crapshoot is that while college football can be a pretty good indicator of pro success, it isn't definite. As I pointed out yesterday, a third of the players drafted in the first round this year probably won't pan out. Usually there isn't a consensus number 1 pick or even a consensus at a position. A story (which I don’t really believe) is floating around that the Raiders have made a contract offer to Brady Quinn (if you have the #1 pick, you can negotiate with players) even though most people think they are locked on JaMarcus Russell at quarterback. The reason being is because they figure Quinn will sign a cheaper contract than Russell even though most teams have them pretty close on their draft boards with some teams having Quinn ahead. Why do they think they can get Quinn cheaper? The teams that are drafting early like Russell better. If Quinn goes first, Russell won't fall past the Browns with the third pick. Word is that if Russell goes first, the Browns will pass on Quinn for Adrian Peterson. So, Quinn could easily fall to Minnesota at seven. Last year's seventh pick, Michael Huff, signed a contract that totaled about what Mario Williams got in guaranteed money alone and about $12 million less in guaranteed money. That's only six picks apart. That's insane. If Quinn thinks he will fall to seventh, he would be smart to take a lowball offer from the Raiders because the pay drop to seventh is huge. I agree with Steve Young - just grab Calvin Johnson.

It's Almost Here

It's coming this weekend. My favorite sporting event outside the football season - the NFL Draft. I try to watch other sporting events during this time, but baseball gets more boring every time I watch it. I like NASCAR, but my favorite drivers are either struggling (Greg Biffle) or not even competing (Michael Waltrip). Waltrip was blatantly cheating and still can't qualify for races. Add to that Tony "Born Dickhead" Stewart blasts NASCAR because he thinks they use yellow caution flags to affect the outcome of races. Well, considering how successful he has been in NASCAR, it seems to me that NASCAR must have been favoring him at some point. Actually, the sport has made him a millionaire, but he's apparently too stupid to realize that saying races are fixed might have a negative affect on his earnings. And yet, I didn't see a caution flag out when Jeff Gordon passed his ass in the last race.

I normally start watching the NBA during the playoffs, but I'm already pissed off. I realize all sports have their share of bad calls, but for some reason, the NBA in the playoffs seem to have more than their fair share. The NBA wonders where these conspiracy theories come from , but there have been way too many games where the bigger named team was the recipient of every call. Nothing will surpass the Kings-Lakers Game 6 from 2002 when the "facing elimination" Lakers shot 27 fourth quarter free throws in a 4 point win. Still, it was pretty damn sad when the Mavericks are playing Golden State in a must win after dropping game 1 at home and Golden State's two best players (one for clapping by a referee on the other side of the floor) were tossed out in the second half. This was after Utah lost to Houston as the Rockets shot 38 free throws to Utah's 17. Does it seem like a coincidence that ratings-wise, the last two teams that the NBA would like to see advance in the playoffs are Golden State and Utah? This kind of crap that seems to happen every year makes me care little about the NBA. The other thing that pisses me off about the NBA playoffs is coverage. I've been a Utah Jazz fan since they drafted Darrell Griffith in 1980. It was bad enough that they were in the one game not carried live on TNT, but there was a 20 minute dead period between the two other games. Did they go to the Jazz game? No, I got 20 minutes of studio. Now, I like Charles Barkley, but I would have rather watched a game. Even worse, Phoenix was up 17 points in the first half, but they still wouldn't switch to the closer Rocket-Jazz game that was in the fourth quarter.


So, all I have to look forward to is the NFL Draft. Which I do even though I find it laughable that so many people are so positive on how players are going to end up. I probably shouldn't say anything because I'm one of them. I was reading a column where the first round picks from 1989-2003 were analyzed by position with him deciding which were busts or not. I thought his rating was pretty lenient on who wasn't a bust, especially when Dan "Big Daddy" Wilkinson was not a bust. He may have had some longevity, but a number 1 overall pick should be considered a bust if he becomes a journeyman player. Even with his broad view of what isn't a bust, only linebacker (16%), safety (11%) and barely cornerback (29%) didn't have at least 30% of first round draftees at that position turn into busts. Of course, safety is skewed because only one year had more than two safeties drafted in the first round, while three years had no safeties drafted in the first round. The offensive skill positions had at least 45% bust rate with quarterbacks sitting at 53%. That means if you draft a quarterback, running back or wide receiver, you have a 50-50 chance that they'll make you look like an idiot especially if you take one from UK.

Which brings me to the most annoying thing I've been reading lately. I don't understand why LSU quarterback JaMarcus Russell is considered the top pick. I'm not even sure why he is the top quarterback in most "mock drafts" that I see. Until he had a big game in the Sugar Bowl, Russell wasn't even considered a first round prospect. During the season, he was a complete chump against top defenses like Auburn and Florida. I'm not a big Brady Quinn fan, but I do not understand how he could fall behind Russell based solely on the Sugar Bowl. Pundits can say Russell and Quinn went head-to-head in that game, but they really didn't. Russell got to face a weak-ass Notre Dame defense while Quinn had to go against one of the top defenses in LSU. Not only that, LSU had two receivers who are listed in the top 10 in their position in this year's draft. Notre Dame's best receiver is going to play baseball for the Cubs. Quinn has been playing fairly well in a pro style offense while Russell was an underachiever until his last game of the season. Yet, most people think Russell will be the number one pick based on his "upside" and athleticism. The dumbest part of it is that the two quarterbacks Russell has been most compared to are Daunte Culpepper and Byron Leftwich. Would anyone waste a number one pick (or first rounder) on either of them? I wouldn't and I like Leftwich. Let's look at the NFL, and see how athletic, strong armed but erratic passing quarterbacks do. In that corner you have Michael Vick who is just this side of worthless. Now, you also have Vince Young who won Rookie of the Year. Guess what? Rick Mirer used his superior athleticism to get named Rookie of the Year by several media outlets. How did that work out? That doesn't mean Young will turn into the next Vick (I think his work ethic is better), but he'll need to complete more than 51% of his passes before I punch his ticket for Canton.

The point is that for all the talk of the "athletic" quarterback becoming the rule, the best quarterbacks in the NFL are still the accurate passers who may or may not have mobility. Who would you rather have? Athletic Michael Vick? Or maybe drop back passers Peyton Manning, Tom Brady, Drew Brees, etc? The fact is that an athletic but inaccurate quarterback is not the prototype NFL quarterback. This obsession with "potential" is the reason more than half of tje quarterbacks drafted in the first round fail.

Yet, I don't just read where the Oakland Raiders should take a chance with Russell as the first pick. I read where they "need" to take him. Yeah, right. Oakland has a poor running game, a bad offensive line and headcase receivers. They really "need" a quarterback who only plays well against weak defenses. I think whoever has the first pick should take receiver Calvin Johnson. Sure, any pick can backfire, but he seems to have the size, speed and hands to be a top receiver in the league. He played with a bum quarterback at Georgia Tech and still was a top receiver in college football. He's basically Randy Moss without the attitude. He could flop, but I think he'll be a star in the league. Russell is one I'm not sure about, especially if he goes to the Raiders. I just don't see how he could develop with the crap talent that Oakland would surround him with.

I blogged last year's draft, and since I will probably watch the entire first day this year, I'll probably do it again. So, let that be a warning to all the (female) readers who don't like the sportscentric postings. You might want to stay away this weekend. Or maybe not since I'll probably make fun of Phil at some point during the day, because that's just what I do. Or so I've been told.

Lexington Happenings

I really should check the weather more often. I knew it was supposed to be cold this week, but I was still a bit surprised to walk out of work into snow. As is normal with me, I had neglected to wear a coat. Or jacket. Fortunately, I don't really mind the cold except those two times I had hypothermia. That really sucked. Actually, I think it's cheaper to heat my apartment than to run the air conditioner, so being the cheap bastard that I am, I might subconsciously prefer it cold. To tell the truth, the air conditioner isn't that expensive because I keep the thermostat pretty high. Well, except that long ago September when I had a daytime-only roommate who would put the thermostat down to about 60 degrees while I was off at the toy mill which led to my September electric bill being almost twice my August one. Since I'm sure he's embarrassed by such wasteful behavior, I won't mention his name, but his initials are P as in Phil and D as in Deskins. However, I didn't hold the extra expense against him (okay, I kept his fantasy football winnings one year). Besides, one of the advantages of apartment living is that, unlike some people, electric bills generally don't run high (as long as you keep the thermostat well above 60). Of course, it also means I don't have a heated pool which would be nice right about now.

After seeing that snow was falling in April, a guy at work did make the joke that UK had rehired Rick Pitino and Hell was freezing over. I did take the side of UK basketball fans over Tubby Smith leaving. However, I don't want to take it over the way a lot of them were acting when Billy Donovan turned down the UK job. I said he would consider it, but I didn't know which way he would go, and I was right. The fact that he didn't turn it down until a couple of days after the Final Four is pretty good indication that he was thinking about it. He simply decided he didn't want to make a change. Yet, UK fans acted like friggin' lunatics. Some were accusing him of leading UK on to gain some kind of advantage even though he gave them a pretty quick decision. Some were wailing that not getting Donovan meant the end of any chance UK had at getting back tot the top. Right. Jim Larranga can get George Mason to the Final Four, but no one except Donovan can get UK back. Real smart. Especially since two years ago, most UK fans would have been pissed if Donovan had been named UK's coach after he had lost in the first or second round of the NCAAs five straight years.

However, I think the real nutball factor was how many fans were outraged that Billy Donovan would turn UK down. My favorites were the ones who felt some type of betrayal. They seemed to think he owed it to UK because he spent five years as an assistant at UK. Sheer genius there. Five years as an assistant should always trump 11 years as a head coach. Others were angry because he crushed their egos by not taking the job and publicly declaring the UK head coaching position as the best in the country. Do I need to remind anyone that Donovan has spent the past 11 years at Florida? I said the UK job is better than the Florida one, but that really only takes affect when someone is deciding which job to take. Eleven years at one job will certainly trump that. Eleven years and you put down some serious roots. No reason to hold that against Donovan, but I'm sure the vast army of nutbags will.

I was actually impressed with Mitch Barnhart's job search. He obviously had Donovan number one which is smart, because he's won two titles and made three Final Fours since 2000. Even if you don't get him, at least you tried. Getting turned down by a guy coming off two titles at the school he's at is not a humiliation. And worries about the guy you do get being viewed as Plan B is borderline retarded. If Billy Gillispie does well, the fact that he wasn't the first choice will just be trivia. Most people I know who are UK fans are unaware that two other coaches were offered the job before Rick Pitino. However, it's apparent he had a backup plan in mind. With Gillispie as the backup plan, Barnhart could actually wait on Donovan because Gillispie was the proverbial coach-who-would-crawl-over-broken-glass for the UK job. That means you can wait on your number one choice, but immediately move to number two.

So, is Gillispie a good hire. I think so. After Donovan, I would have gone with Bruce Pearl, John Calipari and Rick Barnes, in that order. Well, after Saul Smith of course. I said before that Calipari wouldn't even get a look (and he didn't). Word is that Barnhart wasn't interested in Pearl because he was afraid Pearl's ego would clash with him (that's a stupid reason). Seems to be some dispute whether Barnes withdrew because he didn't think he would get the job or because he didn't really want it. I believe the former because Gillispie had negotiated a new contract with Texas A&M, but wouldn't sign it, so he obvioulsy believed he had a real good shot at UK. That makes me think Gillispie was the solid number two option and Barnes figured that out. I put Barnes ahead of Gillispie because he does have more experience. However, there are questions about Barnes' in-game coaching, and Gillispie does have a lot more potential, so I wouldn't put Barnes much ahead of him. To tell the truth, Gillispie has a lot of the things I liked about Pearl. He's a basketball junkie. He can recruit. He's good with the quick turnaround. I just think Pearl's personality would be a better fit for the pressure that comes with the job, and his track record is a bit longer.

Ironically, I think Gillispie could easily have a better season next year than Billy Donovan (trust me, he will have a better season than Tubby Smith). Donovan is losing his top six players from last year. He does have a good incoming class, plus last year's was ranked pretty high. Still, he's only got one player returning that made much of an impact last year. Gillispie built his A&M squads around guard play, and guards are what he's got a lot of at UK. Also ironic, but I think he still finishes behind Pearl and Tennessee who only lose one guy.

The Vast Wasteland

So, the finals are set with Florida against Ohio State. Whoo hoo. I guess I'll root for Ohio State just because I really don't want Florida to win two. It was kind of funny hearing how the Donovan to UK talk might distract the Gators, but I seriously doubt it. I read one guy (can't remember who) who said that Florida's players are probably hoping Donovan takes the UK job so they won't feel bad about jumping to the NBA. I doubt they need that excuse. I think at least Joakim Noah, Al Horford and Corey Brewer make the jump no matter what. What's to keep them? They are already losing starter Lee Humphrey and number one sub Chris Terry. Actually, Humphrey has been the key to Florida's success. With the exception of the Kansas loss where he played well, Humphrey's worst games ended up being losses or closer-than-they-should-have-been wins(like UK). So, since they won't be bringing back the whole gang, those three leave anyway.

Sadly, the end of the college basketball season means the beginning of the lousy television season. When nothing else good was on, I could always switch to basketball. However, I'm not big on the NBA, and I've gotten to the point where I would rather watch paint dry than baseball. I like NASCAR, but it's only on one day of the week. I know what some people are thinking. Why not do something constructive instead of watching TV? Sometimes after a hard day at work, it's nice to come home and relax in front of the TV. The rest of the time I just don't want to do anything constructive, and I think that's probably the best for everyone. To be honest, I do other things while watching TV which is why I like sports. I don't have to watch intently because they have replay.

Besides, most network television sucks. I almost disowned my aunt for making me watch Grey's Anatomy when I was visiting. That show absolutely blows. I think it takes rejected scripts from General Hospital and adds better production values but keeps the same level of acting. Plus, the Asian chick is kind of odd looking. I used to watch House, but it kind of lost me. That's what happened with Law & Order, too. I like the original C.S.I., but I hate the one in Miami. Okay, I really just hate David Caruso. However, I don't really make a point to catch the original because the gap toothed bitch is really beginning to get on my nerves. In fact, the only show I make a point to watch is 24, but only because I saw the first episode and don't want to get behind. Actually, this is the first year I've watched it, and it's really mind-boggling how stupid the people are on the show. A nuke went off outside L.A., but two hours later the biggest concern in the counter-terrorism unit seemed to be whether or not the token Muslim in the office was going to sue because Ricky Shroder (yes, that Ricky Shroder) was about to torture info from her because her computer was the feed used by the terrorists to take over their satellites, but she was re-instated when it was discovered the terrorists had some module that let them in. Ever hear of a firewall? A nuke just went off and you're worried that the EEOC might show up with a complaint? On the plus side, I need to get the cell phone service they have. I can't get reception driving between Lexington and E-town, but these guys don't have a problem in a nuke zone. Don't seem to be too many traffic problems either. Must be the HOV lanes.

Then, there are the reality shows. Can't get into them. Don't understand the appeal at all. I do watch The Soup so I have seen people on those idiot shows. Actually, I caught an episode of I Love New York while over at Phil's place. Phil, I just want to thank you for showing me that booze is not the only way to kill my brain cells. As for American Idol, one week on The Soup, I see some girl crying over some Hindu looking dude with a woman's hairstyle from the 80s who really couldn't sing that well. Strangely enough, the crying girl seemed to want more. Then, the next week, the guy had his hair up like a woodpecker on crack. This is one of the highest rated shows on TV? Then there is its cousin show Dancing With The Stars. Did you know that Heather Mills has a prosthetic leg? I wasn't sure the show mentioned that. Clearly she's an inspiration to all little girls with one leg. She's shown that they can still grow up to be an insufferable hag who can take advantage of a grieving rock star who they can leach from in a few years of marriage before trying to get a good chunk of his fortune in a divorce and then get on a show for D list celebrities. Every little girl's dream.

I used to be able to rely on cable, but now the History Channel has some bizarre fascination with shows about UFOs. It's gotten to be kind of hit or miss. VH1 used to have good shows like Behind The Music and I Love The 80s, but they ran out of groups to do documentaries about and nobody really cared about the 90s. Except UK basketball fans, but I don't think that made I Love The 90s. Now VH1 has I Love New York which should only be shown to prisoners at Gitmo. Discovery Channel has become a refuge for viewing. Unfortunately, I never know if Mythbusters is new or not, and they seem to be running out of things to test. Dirty Jobs may eventually hit that point. How many sewers can you crawl into? I expect contrived jobs like the jizz mopper from Clerks in the future. At least the new season of Deadliest Catch begins this week. Maybe someone will fall overboard again.