It's Almost Here

It's coming this weekend. My favorite sporting event outside the football season - the NFL Draft. I try to watch other sporting events during this time, but baseball gets more boring every time I watch it. I like NASCAR, but my favorite drivers are either struggling (Greg Biffle) or not even competing (Michael Waltrip). Waltrip was blatantly cheating and still can't qualify for races. Add to that Tony "Born Dickhead" Stewart blasts NASCAR because he thinks they use yellow caution flags to affect the outcome of races. Well, considering how successful he has been in NASCAR, it seems to me that NASCAR must have been favoring him at some point. Actually, the sport has made him a millionaire, but he's apparently too stupid to realize that saying races are fixed might have a negative affect on his earnings. And yet, I didn't see a caution flag out when Jeff Gordon passed his ass in the last race.

I normally start watching the NBA during the playoffs, but I'm already pissed off. I realize all sports have their share of bad calls, but for some reason, the NBA in the playoffs seem to have more than their fair share. The NBA wonders where these conspiracy theories come from , but there have been way too many games where the bigger named team was the recipient of every call. Nothing will surpass the Kings-Lakers Game 6 from 2002 when the "facing elimination" Lakers shot 27 fourth quarter free throws in a 4 point win. Still, it was pretty damn sad when the Mavericks are playing Golden State in a must win after dropping game 1 at home and Golden State's two best players (one for clapping by a referee on the other side of the floor) were tossed out in the second half. This was after Utah lost to Houston as the Rockets shot 38 free throws to Utah's 17. Does it seem like a coincidence that ratings-wise, the last two teams that the NBA would like to see advance in the playoffs are Golden State and Utah? This kind of crap that seems to happen every year makes me care little about the NBA. The other thing that pisses me off about the NBA playoffs is coverage. I've been a Utah Jazz fan since they drafted Darrell Griffith in 1980. It was bad enough that they were in the one game not carried live on TNT, but there was a 20 minute dead period between the two other games. Did they go to the Jazz game? No, I got 20 minutes of studio. Now, I like Charles Barkley, but I would have rather watched a game. Even worse, Phoenix was up 17 points in the first half, but they still wouldn't switch to the closer Rocket-Jazz game that was in the fourth quarter.


So, all I have to look forward to is the NFL Draft. Which I do even though I find it laughable that so many people are so positive on how players are going to end up. I probably shouldn't say anything because I'm one of them. I was reading a column where the first round picks from 1989-2003 were analyzed by position with him deciding which were busts or not. I thought his rating was pretty lenient on who wasn't a bust, especially when Dan "Big Daddy" Wilkinson was not a bust. He may have had some longevity, but a number 1 overall pick should be considered a bust if he becomes a journeyman player. Even with his broad view of what isn't a bust, only linebacker (16%), safety (11%) and barely cornerback (29%) didn't have at least 30% of first round draftees at that position turn into busts. Of course, safety is skewed because only one year had more than two safeties drafted in the first round, while three years had no safeties drafted in the first round. The offensive skill positions had at least 45% bust rate with quarterbacks sitting at 53%. That means if you draft a quarterback, running back or wide receiver, you have a 50-50 chance that they'll make you look like an idiot especially if you take one from UK.

Which brings me to the most annoying thing I've been reading lately. I don't understand why LSU quarterback JaMarcus Russell is considered the top pick. I'm not even sure why he is the top quarterback in most "mock drafts" that I see. Until he had a big game in the Sugar Bowl, Russell wasn't even considered a first round prospect. During the season, he was a complete chump against top defenses like Auburn and Florida. I'm not a big Brady Quinn fan, but I do not understand how he could fall behind Russell based solely on the Sugar Bowl. Pundits can say Russell and Quinn went head-to-head in that game, but they really didn't. Russell got to face a weak-ass Notre Dame defense while Quinn had to go against one of the top defenses in LSU. Not only that, LSU had two receivers who are listed in the top 10 in their position in this year's draft. Notre Dame's best receiver is going to play baseball for the Cubs. Quinn has been playing fairly well in a pro style offense while Russell was an underachiever until his last game of the season. Yet, most people think Russell will be the number one pick based on his "upside" and athleticism. The dumbest part of it is that the two quarterbacks Russell has been most compared to are Daunte Culpepper and Byron Leftwich. Would anyone waste a number one pick (or first rounder) on either of them? I wouldn't and I like Leftwich. Let's look at the NFL, and see how athletic, strong armed but erratic passing quarterbacks do. In that corner you have Michael Vick who is just this side of worthless. Now, you also have Vince Young who won Rookie of the Year. Guess what? Rick Mirer used his superior athleticism to get named Rookie of the Year by several media outlets. How did that work out? That doesn't mean Young will turn into the next Vick (I think his work ethic is better), but he'll need to complete more than 51% of his passes before I punch his ticket for Canton.

The point is that for all the talk of the "athletic" quarterback becoming the rule, the best quarterbacks in the NFL are still the accurate passers who may or may not have mobility. Who would you rather have? Athletic Michael Vick? Or maybe drop back passers Peyton Manning, Tom Brady, Drew Brees, etc? The fact is that an athletic but inaccurate quarterback is not the prototype NFL quarterback. This obsession with "potential" is the reason more than half of tje quarterbacks drafted in the first round fail.

Yet, I don't just read where the Oakland Raiders should take a chance with Russell as the first pick. I read where they "need" to take him. Yeah, right. Oakland has a poor running game, a bad offensive line and headcase receivers. They really "need" a quarterback who only plays well against weak defenses. I think whoever has the first pick should take receiver Calvin Johnson. Sure, any pick can backfire, but he seems to have the size, speed and hands to be a top receiver in the league. He played with a bum quarterback at Georgia Tech and still was a top receiver in college football. He's basically Randy Moss without the attitude. He could flop, but I think he'll be a star in the league. Russell is one I'm not sure about, especially if he goes to the Raiders. I just don't see how he could develop with the crap talent that Oakland would surround him with.

I blogged last year's draft, and since I will probably watch the entire first day this year, I'll probably do it again. So, let that be a warning to all the (female) readers who don't like the sportscentric postings. You might want to stay away this weekend. Or maybe not since I'll probably make fun of Phil at some point during the day, because that's just what I do. Or so I've been told.