Sunday, May 20, 2007

Let's Go Jazz

Well, for the first time in a few of years, I can actually root for the Jazz in the playoffs. Actually, for the first time this century, I can root for them as they move deep into the playoffs. Nobody is giving them much of a chance to beat the Spurs, and I have to agree it'll be tough. I'm not sure Carlos Boozer will be able to maintain his stellar play against Tim Duncan (although Amare Stoudemire did). The Spurs will probably put Bruce Bowen on Deron Williams, so that the only real advantage the Jazz will have Mehmet Okur. However, I think the Jazz are playing as good as anyone right now.

To be honest, I was rooting for the Suns to win their series over the Spurs because I though it was a better matchup for the Jazz. They haven't won in San Antonio since 1999, while they took the season series with Phoenix 3-1 (although I still would have considered them the underdogs in that one too). Now, even though I was rooting for the Suns, I am getting a little tired of all the "injustice" talk that is going around about the suspensions of Stoudemire and Boris Diaw in the Spurs/Suns series for leaving the bench after a hard foul on Steve Nash. Now, would the Suns have won game five with those two? Good chance, although you might notice they still lost three other games in the series with them. So, playing the "What if" game is pointless.

The biggest laugh I get out of the entire controversy was the idea that the Spurs were "dirty". A few years ago, the Spurs were called soft. I guess facing an even softer team makes you look dirty although it's funny because last year's villain was the Suns' Raja Bell who got suspended for a takedown on Kobe Bryant. Sure, the series got "chippy" (buzz word for this year's playoffs), but it wasn't any more "chippy" than the Jazz/Warriors series where the Warriors were called for several flagrant and technical fouls. Yet, no one was up in arms about that. There were two reasons why. First, unlike the whiny Suns (I saw a play where Steve Nash fumbled the ball away, yet screamed at the ref that his arm had been hit), the Jazz just played on. Second, sportswriters suck. They actually seem to think they have the pulse of the nation and choose their outrage based on the results they want. The Warriors were the lovable (even with a player under indictment for a strip club shooting) underdogs. They weren't going to disrupt the fairy tale. As for the Suns, they were exciting. The Spurs are boring. So, everyone outside of San Antonio must have been rooting for the Suns so they don't have to watch more Spurs.

Really, how else do you explain the fact that Horry's hip check on Nash that sparked the problems in game four became the cheapest shot in the history of basketball? Even by Marv Albert who covered Knick games under Pat Riley. Give me a break. It wasn't good, but I'm not even sure it was worse than the shot Bell put on Bryant last year or the elbow to the face that Baron Davis gave Derek Fisher in the Warriors/Jazz series. It might look bad, but if Nash had any weight, he wouldn't have flopped that far away. I've seen Allen Iverson take worse. It certainly wasn't close to the stuff that Detroit teams did in the 80s or the Celtic teams did in the 80s or what Charles Oakley did his entire career. I'm not sure when the NBA became so wussified, but it has.

Further, how else do you explain the sudden condemnation of a rule that's been in place for years? It's well known that you are going to be suspended if you leave the bench during a fight as Stoudemire and Diaw did. The reason is that the NBA gets bad press for its fights. Mainly because fighting is expected in hockey, padded in football and silly looking in baseball. Plus, basketball players have a much closer proximity to the fans. No one bitched this much when the Knicks lost to the Heat even though the situation was the same as the Knicks lost several players to suspension for leaving the bench. Every argument used then by the Knicks then was used this time by the Suns this year. Defending a teammate; never got near the action; important playoff series; a Heat player instigated it. Yet, everyone was fine with the rule then, but not now. Suddenly, it's the devil. Sorry. Not buying it. They knew the rule. They face the consequences. You might notice that in the Jazz series, they didn't rush the court to fight when Fisher took a cheap elbow to the face nor did the Lakers when Bryant went down. They know the rules.

Is it a dumb rule? That's the new argument, and it's funny as hell because the same people who bitch about the NBA different standards of punishment now want to give them "discretion" in situations like this. I like the rule because it takes the discretion out of the NBA's hands. A fight breaks out, you leave the bench, you get suspended. Look at how warped the NBA already is when it comes to punishment. If Stoudemire and Diaw don't leave the bench, they don't get suspended. I'll bet Horry still gets suspended for the shot on Nash (although probably one instead of two games). Nash is a star, Horry is not. Compare it to the elbow on Fisher. I think it was just as bad, but Baron Davis didn't get suspended at all. Why? He's the star of the Warriors who are the compelling story of the playoffs. The last thing the NBA needs is allowing more protection from punishment by the stars.

Post Preakness Thoughts

Damn, that was a horse race. Unfortunately my horse got nipped at the wire. I was afraid of Curlin improving over the last two weeks, and it came to be. I still think Street Sense is a great horse. Curlin is just as good. A near photo finish that was the fastest Preakness ever. I was initially worried when the early fractions were crazy fast. Then I felt better when Street Sense made his move to the front, because he passed Curlin pretty easily going into the stretch, and normally a horse won't come back from that. Well, Curlin did, and I had a bad feeling when he came back that he was going to catch Street Sense. Hopefully, both horses will go to the Belmont and they'll promote it as a match race to decide the rubber match.

Saturday, May 19, 2007

The Preakness

After winning money on the Derby two weeks ago, I would be smart to stay away from the Preakness. But I can't. Especially since this year's race is much more interesting than a lot of Preakness Stakes' in the past. Too often, you get one or two good horses and the rest filler. That makes for good viewing with the match race concept, but not good handicapping. Actually, it becomes bad viewing like 2003 when the only two quality horses were Funny Cide and Peace Rules, but it bombed when Peace Rules flopped. The place horse, Midway Road, was coming out of an allowance race. That's how bad that field was. Last year was set up to be a great race when talented but untested Bernardini was coming in fresh to face Barbaro coming off a monster Kentucky Derby win. Sadly, that race was interesting for all the wrong reasons. This year should be good handicapping and viewing.

I like Street Sense an awful lot, and not just because I won some good money on him. I won't win squat if I bet him in the Preakness and he wins because the odds are going to be much smaller. I would really like to see him win the Triple Crown, but I can see the other three horses coming in from the Derby winning the race. In fact, a lot of people think he's very beatable. The belief among them is Street Sense had the perfect ride at his favorite track (also his jockey's home track) when he got to the rail the way he did, and now everyone will be looking for him to go there. Hard Spun should get a lot of play because he looked good leading a good chunk of the Derby and holding on for second. With a shorter distance at Pimlico, he could hold on this time. Plus, his jockey knows Pimlico well. The other two Derby veterans had some traffic issues two weeks ago. Curlin went into the Derby as a highly successful but lightly raced horse who had never really been tested. He is clearly a talented horse so there is definitely room for improvement. So, a better a trip could mean going from a Derby third to a Preakness first. Circular Quay finished sixth in the Derby, but was only a bit out of third. He made his move at the same time as Street Sense, but he got caught six wide which left him too far back. With only nine horses compared to the Derby's 20, the Preakness should have fewer traffic problems. Plus, he was coming off a long layoff. Could be sharper today.

Of course, those three horses aren't without blemishes. While Circular Quay did have to go around horses on the outside, he didn't show me an explosive kick like Street Sense had. In much the same way, Curlin did have traffic problems at the Derby, but they weren't terrible, and he got free but couldn't gain ground on Hard Spun running second. Now, Hard Spun's jockey may be familiar with Pimlico, but that doesn't mean Hard Spun is. He's never raced there, so I don't know if he'll take to that track the way Street Sense did with Churchill. And the funniest part about people pointing out Street Sense's "perfect trip" is that Hard Spun's trainer, Larry Jones, is leading the pack on it. Well, that's pretty ironic since I thought Hard Spun got the perfect trip for him, and it didn't get him the win at Churchill Downs. He got the early lead, set the pace and watched Street Sense blow by him. And Street Sense was on cruise control down to the finish line. In fact, if jockey Calvin Borel didn't start celebrating early, that 2 1/4 length victory would have been stretched quite a bit farther. And I doubt Hard Spun will be setting the pace today. Three newcomers (Xchanger, King of the Roxy and Flying First Class) will all likely try to set a fast pace. Hard Spun has come off the pace before, but not against quality competition. I'm not sure he's ready for it.

So, does this mean I think Street Sense will win the Preakness? Actually, yes. It's not a certainty (and it never is in horse racing) since the Preakness is a different animal than the Derby. He probably won't be able to drop as far back as he did in the Derby. However, I'm more concerned with Curlin and Circular Quay improving than Street Sense not getting back. Now, it is true that Street Sense had a great trip in the Derby. Of course, that could mean the jockey knew his horse really well leading to the win. Borel is known for riding the rail, but he doesn't necessarily have to. There will be 11 fewer horses than in the Derby, so Street Sense could go outside and still not get more than three wide. The odds of Street Sense getting a good trip should be better in this race. What I like about him is the acceleration he showed in the Derby. He should be able to go where he wants to. Remember, horses don't really run in a straight line around the track. Street Sense doesn't need a big hole to blow through. Now, at 7-5 odds (my guess for post time), I would normally try to beat him, but I hate to root for a horse when I have money on another one. So, I'll do a modest win bet, and then try to supplement that by betting place/shows and exotics. I'm thinking an exacta of Street Sense over Circular Quay.

Sunday, May 13, 2007

Some Recent News Stories

It just wouldn't be a news report without starting with Paris Hilton who has just been sentenced to 45 days in jail for probation violation. I've never seen her show or movies. Well, except parts of that one video that never made it to television. Which is why I've never understood the fascination with her, because while I guess she's attractive, she's really not so stunningly beautiful to the point I should care. While I won't be like some and say she has no talent, because to others, the ability to mug for a camera during fellatio while stoned is a talent. And I know she can do that. I've seen it. However, she doesn't do it all that often, and her other "talents" shouldn't be enough to merit this attention. I'm not sure who is more clueless - her, the people covering her or her fans. The media covering it are pretty stupid because they write their stories like she'll actually serve 45 days of hard time. To begin with, she'll probably get time off for good behavior and not serve 45 days. Secondly, she will be segregated from other prisoners because no one cares if some two bit check kiter spending 30 days in the slammer gets turned into some bull dyke's bitch, but prison officials don't want that to happen to someone who has People magazine on speed dial. Still, are they as stupid as Paris herself? She thinks she's being treated unfairly. Let's see? Get probation, mandatory alcohol counseling and a suspended license for a DUI. Skip mandatory counseling and get caught driving with said suspended license three times. Then insult the judge's intelligence by claiming you got bad legal advice from your publicist. Follow that up with the unfairness claim. I agree with her. She shouldn't be treated differently. Put her in general lockup so that some bull dyke does turn her into her bitch. Still, she's dumb, but nothing like her fans who are now signing a petition to the governor of California to pardon her because "she provides hope for young people all over the US and the world. She provides beauty and excitement to our otherwise mundane lives." Hey, we've got a winner for the most clueless. Normally, I oppose suicide, but if someone needs a socialite/wannabe actress who wouldn't give them the time of day on the street to provide a spark in their useless existence, don't let me be the one to tell them not to put a gun barrel in their mouth. I guess the only saving grace is that more people are signing a petition to jail her than are signing the one to free her.

Of course, why should a "celebrity" think she should obey traffic laws when the people at the top of the law enforcement structure don't think the laws apply to them either?

On the NASCAR front, people were shocked when Dale Earnhardt Jr is leaving Dale Earnhardt Inc. (DEI) which his father founded. I find the whole thing rather silly because I can name another prominent Earnhardt who never drove for DEI in Nextel Cup (formerly Winston Cup, formerly Grand National). Dale Earnhardt Sr who founded the company. He only drove Busch Series races with it. So, I don't know why Junior not driving for DEI is so shocking when Senior thought his chances of winning were better with Childress Racing. I'm actually odd when it comes to Dale Jr. I like him, but I didn't really like his dad, so I don't care that he's leaving DEI. I do think it's funny that it'll screw his most hardcore (and moronic) fans who have already tattooed his number 8 on some part of their body. A lot of people think it would make sense for him to go to Childress and drive his dad's old number 3 car, but I actually think he would be better off not doing that. It's kind of like Hank Williams Jr in music. He really needed to stop singing his dad's songs and make it on his own. What is shocking to me is that DEI thinks they will still have something without him. Dumb, dumb, dumb. Dan Wetzel had the best column about it. Junior wanted majority ownership, but his stepmother Teresa only offered it at a big price. DEI wasn't like Childress or Penske or several other organizations that were racing centered. DEI is pure personality centered. Or was. Dale Sr is dead. They just let his heir and most popular living driver go. To tell the truth, I think Dale Jr regretted leaving, but he wasn't going to work for his stepmother. She insulted him in the Wall Street Journal, but expected a loyalty discount. Didn't get it, and now she's got garbage.

I think what I find most disturbing is that there are people out there (and I know some) who aren't concerned with Iran getting nuclear weapons.

I thought it was bad when Sudan was a member of the United Nations Human Rights Commission (while simultaneously chaired by Libya). And it was. However, the fact that African basket case Zimbabwe is now chairing the Commission of Sustainable Development. Apparently, the UN has decided being bad at something is all the more reason to put you in charge of it. And yet, some people think we don't give enough money to the UN.

At least people in England are protected from male strippers, because obviously real crime is not a problem there.

One problem with the Kentucky Derby is that it can attract bad elements to the state. Namely OJ Simpson. It was big news when he was refused service at an upscale steak house in Louisville because he is, well, a scumbag. Originally, Simpson's lawyer threatened to sue for racial discrimination, but apparently changed his mind. My guess is that he realized "people who get away with killing their ex-wife and then try to write a book about it" are not a protected class. Plus, I'm sure the last place he wants OJ is giving a deposition. Of course, it led to local "activist" Louis "Louisville's Al Sharpton" Coleman picketing the steak house. Apparently, getting away with multiple homicide isn't an injustice, but refusing to let someone who did that eat at an expensive restaurant is. Since a civil jury found the preponderance of evidence was conclusive that Simpson was responsible for the murder of his ex-wife and the Jewish bodybuilder, I have no choice but to conclude that Coleman believes murdering white people and Jews is acceptable.

Now, to begin with, I believe anyone who thinks a picture of 18,000 naked Mexicans is art has lost their mind. Give me a break. It doesn't take much to stand their naked. None of my Mexican neighbors run around naked. In fact, they get huffy when I go to the laundry without any pants on. Hypocrites.

Hey, San Francisco has decided to be a sanctuary city for illegal aliens. Of course, that's pretty easy to do considering the price of housing and cost of living is astronomical in San Francisco. Since it's unlikely illegal immigrants have the high paying jobs there, the likelihood is that the only illegal immigrants living in San Francisco are homeless. Or buttboys for rich..... well never mind.

This was a horrible crime. A mother sells her daughter for $3000. To Sammy Hagar. Okay, someone who looks a lot like Sammy Hagar. Of course, looking at Mom, I'm real curious what the daughter looks like. Not to make light of her sad circumstances (but that's what I do), but if she takes after her mother, this dude overpaid.

Then there is my favorite. The politician engaging in the BS publicity stunt. This was a good one. The governor of Oregon lived a full week on $21 worth of food to commiserate with people who live on food stamps. The easiest way to show what a moron this guy is would be to point out that food stamps are a supplement. For the stupid, that means you are given $21 a week to "help" pay for your groceries. Food stamps are not designed to pay your entire grocery bill. I realize it's tough for a politician in the Democratic Party to understand, but the food stamp program expects its participants to have enough responsibility to pay for some of their own grocery bill. Actually, I would put even more severe restrictions on it, especially after I stood in line at a gas station convenience store (about a block from a regular grocery store) and watched some little brat buy Popsicles with food stamps. He wasn't buying a box of them. He was buying a box worth of individual ones. So, he's buying them at a higher priced store and in the most expensive way possible. Great. With that type of economic mentality, I'm shocked his family qualified for food stamps. Well, except that I knew a couple of guys in college who applied for and received food stamps because they could show they had no income. They had no income because their parents sent them money each week so they didn't need a job. So, they blew their money from home on weed and beer and used the food stamps for snacks. Dickweeds. But I digress. Problems with a government program will be addressed at another time. My biggest problem with what the governor of Oregon is doing is that it's completely full of crap. Living on a food stamp allotment for a week to "empathize" with the downtrodden is bogus. Mainly because you know at the end of the week that you will be able to go back to living the high life with the chef at the governor's mansion. It's like another instance when I was in college. A group of well-intentioned fools, I mean students, decided the best way to understand the homeless experience was to sleep outside one night. Well, as a kid, I remember doing that quite often. As a Boy Scout. And for fun. It's called camping. How did these people really believe they were going to have an experience like a homeless person? For one, they weren't drunk, on drugs or consumed by mental problems (well, not clinically). Secondly, the only danger they faced sleeping in a small campus quad was a drunken frat guy running over them while doing donuts out there (and no, it wouldn't have been me, because I didn't have a car most of the time I was in college). It's just feel good pointless crap that really does nothing to alleviate any problem. It just lets some narcissistic personalities feel better about themselves

Saturday, May 05, 2007

Money, Money, Money

Let's see. A $2 win bet paid $11.80. So, a $50 ticket pays $295. Street Sense is my new favorite horse. My least favorite horses are the ones I lost money on earlier in the day because after a hot start to the day, I was down going into the Derby. If I had been ahead or even, I would thrown $100 on the race. But, I'm certainly not going to complain about getting back six times what I put in, especially in 10 minutes. Plus, I was really happy to see jockey Calvin Borel get the win as he is not just an underrated jockey, but has a reputation as one of the nicest jockeys out there. I also saw his fiancé at Churchill Downs one time. He got himself a little hottie.

This was a great race. Sometimes jockeys get too much credit for wins because a lot of it is having a good horse. Yet, Borel rode a great race. He put Street Sense in good position and made his move at the right time. I loved the blimp view as they went around the second turn, because I could see Street Sense coming up the inside and also see there was room to maneuver. The announcer had made a point early that he was second to last early in the race, but that was stupid since Street Sense is a closer and wants to be there. When he made his move right before they hit the stretch, I started counting my money because he was exploding through the pack. I love to see a jockey blow to the lead with a lot of horse still underneath him. Especially when I have money on it. I was actually impressed with Hard Spun too. I thought when he blasted to the front that he would fold quick, but he hung on to finish second. He just wasn't going to hold off Street Sense.

Now, the question is whether or not Street Sense can win the Triple Crown. I hope so. I'm a snob about the Triple Crown. I rooted against Funny Cide winning it because I didn't think he was good enough. Street Sense was the two year old champion who just crushed the field at the Derby. I think he would be a good choice to be the first Triple Crown winner in almost 30 years. I'm just not sure he can do it. He's a great horse, but as a closer, he could have problems with the shorter distance and tight turns of the Preakness. While he's better suited for the Belmont, he'll be running his third race in five weeks and most likely facing well rested horses that skipped the Preakness.

Well, now that my horse won the Derby, maybe my luck will stretch to other sports and Greg Biffle will win the NASCAR race tonight and the Utah Jazz will win game seven in the NBA playoffs. Probably not too good for Biffle since Fords are competitive this year. Utah would be great because the NBA would crap themselves as they have either Utah or Golden State going to the Western Conference finals. Which is sad because I think Golden State/Utah would be a good series to watch. Better than Golden State and Houston. Ironically, I think Golden State could knock off Houston pretty easily because I'm not sure Houston's backcourt could handle the Golden State guards effectively. Is anyone having a better playoff than Baron Davis? I have to give the Warriors a lot of credit. I stayed up to watch their home games against Dallas even though they were ending damn near one in the morning. But it was so funny to see one the biggest asses in the game, Mark Cuban, look so miserable. While I realize Golden State was a bad matchup for Dallas, I was still surprised how quickly the Mavericks gave up in game 6. They flat stopped playing in the third quarter. How do you win 67 games in the regular season and then lose a first round elimination game by 25 points against a team that had to win their last nine to get into the tournament and whose best player was gimpy? Ironically, one of those wins was over Dallas who was resting their starters. Only 12 teams have won 65 games in the NBA. Ten won championships while the '73 Celtics lost in the conference finals. Without a doubt, this is the biggest choke job I've ever seen in the NBA.

Derby Time

Ah, the Derby. Horse racing's geatest event. It can turn horses into stars before they quit at the end of their three year old season to be put out to stud. Unless you were gelded like Funny Cide. Then we get the spectacle of watching him lose allowance races as a five year old. Otherwise, you're looking to see a Derby winner running past October unless they really sucked. It's probably going to just get worse after Barbaro got hurt one race after the Derby. No telling how much future money was lost when he had to be put down. A lot of people think horse racing hurts itself by retiring their horses to stud too early, because they don't get a chance to build a following.


Horse racing does have problems, but that really isn't one of them. Top horses now only race a handful of times throughout the year so how much an impact their continued racing would give the sport is hard to measure. Smarty Jones was very popular, but if he had raced six stakes races as a four year old, would people have gone to the track the next day to watch a bunch of claimers race? Doubtful. I think horse racing needs to push the gambling aspect of it more. Casinos are opening everywhere. Poker is televised. Powerball is huge. Yet, horse racing pushes it as an event which works for a place like Keeneland which has a short schedule with mostly high quality races. For an Ellis Park, they need more. Yet, tracks are falling all over themselves to screw up the gambling aspect. I've long had a TVG off track wagering account, because they had most of the tracks I liked to bet (exceptions being Pimlico and Santa Anita). Now, Churchill Downs has partnered up with Magna Entertainment which includes those other tracks, but not the New York tracks or Keeneland. Since I bet Churchill and Keeneland more than any other tracks, I now need two different wagering services. That's fan friendly.

Of course, the Derby itself screws up with too many horses. Eighteen to twenty horses is just too many because you end up with a traffic jam. Too often the best horses get a bad trip and you end up with a nag like Giacomo winning the Kentucky Derby. He ran as a four year old because no one was waving big money to put him up for stud (Afleet Alex was clearly a much better horse along with probably the majority of the field). He won only one other race after the Derby. I don't know if he's the worst Derby winner ever, but he is in my lifetime. Something's wrong when monster horses like Point Given and Easy Goer don't win the Derby, but crap like Giacomo does.

Now for my Derby picks. I don't know why I bet the Derby, because it's the one I have the least success with. If it wasn't for Fusaichi Pegasus (2000) and Silver Charm (1998), I would probably have to go back to Swale in 1984 for my last correct Derby pick. So, the following choices are probably wrong, but on the plus side, take them in the Preakness and Belmont. Since 1994, I picked Tabasco Cat, Point Given and Afleet Alex to win the Derby. All three lost that race, but ended up winning both the Preakness and Belmont. But I'll still take a shot and go with Street Sense which means if I lose, a lot of people will lose. Street Sense was number two in the morning line, but I think he could be the post time favorite. He's got a good post and likes the track. I threw out his second in the Bluegrass Stakes because the horse that won excels on polytrack, but not so much on dirt. Other horse I like are three of Todd Pletcher's horses. He's one of, if not the best trainer in the country, so I figure he's got to win eventually. Scat Daddy was getting some love in early wagering, and I really hope the "Scat" comes from the jazz term and not the other reference. As for the horse, he's got my favorite jockey, Edgar Prado, and a stalking style that I think fits the Derby. Circular Quay is another I like who I could actually get a good price on. He's got John Velazquez, probably the best jockey in the country, and is another with a good Derby style. The concern is he's coming off a layoff. Finally, I like Cowtown Cat, but not necessarily to win. I'm not sure he's good enough, but 20-1 morning line could mean a nice place or show bet. I'm certainly going to throw him into exotics. Depending on pace, he could pick up the pieces. I think I'll bet big on Street Sense with a smaller saver bet on Circular Quay or Scat Daddy depending on price. Then an exacta with Cowtown Cat with a possible show bet.

Then there are some horses I threw out, but probably shouldn't have, so based on my past record, here are the ones you should go with. Curlin certainly has talent, but I'm just not sold on him (which means you should put the mortgage on him). Plus, he's owned by corrupt lawyer slash corrupt donor Shirley Cunningham Jr whose lazy eye freaks me out. Hard Spun has five wins in six races and is bred for the distance, but he didn't beat anyone good. Another horse with a nice record and distance breeding is Nobiz Like Showbiz, but I didn't like how he looked in the Wood Memorial. Any Given Sunday has the same resume as Nobiz, but lost to him in the Wood, so I threw both out. Great Hunter looked bad in the Bluegrass and has a lousy post position. Some people are now pushing Tiago who is a brother to Giacomo and is coming off a surprise win in the Santa Anita Derby, just like Giacomo did two years ago before taking the Derby. Of course, since I consider Giacomo's Derby win to be fluke if not an outright abomination of the sport, I wouldn't bet crap on him.
I went back and forth on Dominican. He did win the Bluegrass Stakes over Street Sense with a strong late run, but I originally tossed him out because he was perfect over polytrack, but winless over dirt. Then I found out that he is 2 for 2 since being gelded, because a undescended testicle (look it up yourself) hampered his running. Now, that shows horses don't understand the racing game. If Dominican knew winning more would have kept his balls and pointed him towards early retirement as a stud, he would have run faster. So, even though I can't completely rule out his dislike of dirt, I had to include him as a possible. Then he got the 19th post position. I don't care if he is a closer, I've got to throw him out. Told you there were too many horses in this damn race.

Tuesday, May 01, 2007

A Few Last Draft Thoughts

I swear this is the last post about the NFL draft. For tonight anyway.

I won't give draft grades, mainly because I'm lazy. Besides, who knows which of these guys will flop. Everyone thought the Chargers were smart to take Ryan Leaf when they actually did, and now he's the poster boy for high round disasters. But I also know that we really won't be able to grade this draft for about three years. I may think JaMarcus Russell isn't as much a "sure thing" as the chick John Cusack was trying to get to California to bang, but I don't know it. My belief is the league is full of guys succeeding in spite of relatively tame arm strength (Tom Brady, Peyton Manning) while the NFL bust list is full of strong armed failures (Kyle Boller, Akili Smith). Since I don't know how Brady Quinn will turn out, it's tough to condemn teams for passing on him. In fact, I don't think Miami was the big screw-up for passing on Quinn because they will eventually get Trent Green. With guys like Brian Brohm, John David Booty, Colt Brennan and even Andre Woodsen coming out, I think the quarterback pool could be deeper next year, so getting Green for a couple of years mean they can still get someone next year to be their future if that second rounder, John Beck, doesn't work out. Actually, I think Minnesota screwed up because they are going into next year with Tavaris Jackson who showed me nothing in limited time last year.

I'm not going to let Miami completely off the hook. Some people said the problem taking Ted Ginn Jr was because Quinn was still on the board. My belief is that he's a punt returner who at best might become a number two receiver. I think the best comparison I saw was Desmond Howard who was crap at receiver. That's not much for a number 9 pick.

Well, Michael Bush was the first pick of the fourth round, and he went to Oakland which I didn't really want to see. He should be able to get playing time without having to rush back from rehab, but that is poorly run organization. I was really hoping Philly would take him to complement Brian Westbrook. A couple of other Louisville players got drafted on day two, but I think next year could have four go on day one.

Actually, I was hoping the Steelers would take Bush to be the next Jerome Bettis, but it might be better that they didn't. I'm not sure about the direction of the team, so without Bill Cowher, they may not want a big back. I have mixed reactions on their draft. I did like the second round pick of Lamar Woodley as he might be small, he could be an ideal outside linebacker if (a big if) the Steelers stick with the 3-4 defense. I also like the drafting of William Gay from Louisville who I thought was underrated by draft gurus, but I might be biased. Otherwise, I've already said I didn't think much of their number one pick. The rest didn't light my world on fire either.

Since so many of my friends are Bengals fans, I'll give a few thoughts about them. Leon Hall was a good pick especially at that point and considering they needed a cornerback. I don't understand the running back in the second round. In fact, why take any offensive players early. They were in good shape there. I'm just not sure what they are going to get out of other defensive players after Hall.

I don't know why so many people were surprised that the Eagles drafted a quarterback. Donovan McNabb has finished a season in three years. In fact, in the past five years, he has only played 16 games once, but played 10 or fewer in three of them. So, you need a backup who can go for several games. Then the knock was Kevin Kolb is a "system quarterback" which means he has may not transition well (think Florida Gator quarterbacks under Steve Spurrier). What they don't mention is that coach Andy Reid runs a "system" and wants quarterbacks who fit it. The dumbest comment I heard about Kolb was from Mark Schlereth on a post-draft special. He started off with the "system quarterback" argument, but then he had to follow it up by pointing out that previous quarterbacks from the University of Houston didn't pan out. By that he meant Andre Ware and David Klingler. Brilliant. He basically said that Kolb would fail because two quarterbacks who were drafted 15 and 17 years ago didn't work out. The Colts sure were stupid to draft that Peyton Manning after Heath Shuler proved Volunteer quarterbacks can't play.

As I said, it usually takes a few years for sure to know whether my predictions were correct. Even after winning Rookie Of The Year last year, I still won't say Vince Young is a perennial Pro Bowler yet. Michael Vick and Rick Mirer peeked their rookie year. So, I can't tell you if any of my predictions will come true, but one thing I do know, my wish did. In the section on Round Two, I thought it would be funny if Keyshawn Johnson got cut in training camp because Carolina drafted a Southern Cal receiver he was gushing over. It didn't take that long.

To be honest, this wasn't one of the better drafts. There just weren't a whole lot of marquee players. When I was driving to Louisville on Sunday morning, I was listening to ESPN radio, they really focused on some silly aspects to it. Actually, silly came into play when they were talking about the NBA. One asked the other if he thought the Golden State Warriors had a legit chance at winning their series against the Dallas Mavericks. Considering that the Warriors were up 2 games to 1, they already proved they had a legit chance of beating the Mavericks. In fact, as I write this, the Warriors have a 3-1 lead in the seven game series, and they are ahead in the fourth quarter. No, they don't have a legit chance. Moron.