Derby Time

Ah, the Derby. Horse racing's geatest event. It can turn horses into stars before they quit at the end of their three year old season to be put out to stud. Unless you were gelded like Funny Cide. Then we get the spectacle of watching him lose allowance races as a five year old. Otherwise, you're looking to see a Derby winner running past October unless they really sucked. It's probably going to just get worse after Barbaro got hurt one race after the Derby. No telling how much future money was lost when he had to be put down. A lot of people think horse racing hurts itself by retiring their horses to stud too early, because they don't get a chance to build a following.


Horse racing does have problems, but that really isn't one of them. Top horses now only race a handful of times throughout the year so how much an impact their continued racing would give the sport is hard to measure. Smarty Jones was very popular, but if he had raced six stakes races as a four year old, would people have gone to the track the next day to watch a bunch of claimers race? Doubtful. I think horse racing needs to push the gambling aspect of it more. Casinos are opening everywhere. Poker is televised. Powerball is huge. Yet, horse racing pushes it as an event which works for a place like Keeneland which has a short schedule with mostly high quality races. For an Ellis Park, they need more. Yet, tracks are falling all over themselves to screw up the gambling aspect. I've long had a TVG off track wagering account, because they had most of the tracks I liked to bet (exceptions being Pimlico and Santa Anita). Now, Churchill Downs has partnered up with Magna Entertainment which includes those other tracks, but not the New York tracks or Keeneland. Since I bet Churchill and Keeneland more than any other tracks, I now need two different wagering services. That's fan friendly.

Of course, the Derby itself screws up with too many horses. Eighteen to twenty horses is just too many because you end up with a traffic jam. Too often the best horses get a bad trip and you end up with a nag like Giacomo winning the Kentucky Derby. He ran as a four year old because no one was waving big money to put him up for stud (Afleet Alex was clearly a much better horse along with probably the majority of the field). He won only one other race after the Derby. I don't know if he's the worst Derby winner ever, but he is in my lifetime. Something's wrong when monster horses like Point Given and Easy Goer don't win the Derby, but crap like Giacomo does.

Now for my Derby picks. I don't know why I bet the Derby, because it's the one I have the least success with. If it wasn't for Fusaichi Pegasus (2000) and Silver Charm (1998), I would probably have to go back to Swale in 1984 for my last correct Derby pick. So, the following choices are probably wrong, but on the plus side, take them in the Preakness and Belmont. Since 1994, I picked Tabasco Cat, Point Given and Afleet Alex to win the Derby. All three lost that race, but ended up winning both the Preakness and Belmont. But I'll still take a shot and go with Street Sense which means if I lose, a lot of people will lose. Street Sense was number two in the morning line, but I think he could be the post time favorite. He's got a good post and likes the track. I threw out his second in the Bluegrass Stakes because the horse that won excels on polytrack, but not so much on dirt. Other horse I like are three of Todd Pletcher's horses. He's one of, if not the best trainer in the country, so I figure he's got to win eventually. Scat Daddy was getting some love in early wagering, and I really hope the "Scat" comes from the jazz term and not the other reference. As for the horse, he's got my favorite jockey, Edgar Prado, and a stalking style that I think fits the Derby. Circular Quay is another I like who I could actually get a good price on. He's got John Velazquez, probably the best jockey in the country, and is another with a good Derby style. The concern is he's coming off a layoff. Finally, I like Cowtown Cat, but not necessarily to win. I'm not sure he's good enough, but 20-1 morning line could mean a nice place or show bet. I'm certainly going to throw him into exotics. Depending on pace, he could pick up the pieces. I think I'll bet big on Street Sense with a smaller saver bet on Circular Quay or Scat Daddy depending on price. Then an exacta with Cowtown Cat with a possible show bet.

Then there are some horses I threw out, but probably shouldn't have, so based on my past record, here are the ones you should go with. Curlin certainly has talent, but I'm just not sold on him (which means you should put the mortgage on him). Plus, he's owned by corrupt lawyer slash corrupt donor Shirley Cunningham Jr whose lazy eye freaks me out. Hard Spun has five wins in six races and is bred for the distance, but he didn't beat anyone good. Another horse with a nice record and distance breeding is Nobiz Like Showbiz, but I didn't like how he looked in the Wood Memorial. Any Given Sunday has the same resume as Nobiz, but lost to him in the Wood, so I threw both out. Great Hunter looked bad in the Bluegrass and has a lousy post position. Some people are now pushing Tiago who is a brother to Giacomo and is coming off a surprise win in the Santa Anita Derby, just like Giacomo did two years ago before taking the Derby. Of course, since I consider Giacomo's Derby win to be fluke if not an outright abomination of the sport, I wouldn't bet crap on him.
I went back and forth on Dominican. He did win the Bluegrass Stakes over Street Sense with a strong late run, but I originally tossed him out because he was perfect over polytrack, but winless over dirt. Then I found out that he is 2 for 2 since being gelded, because a undescended testicle (look it up yourself) hampered his running. Now, that shows horses don't understand the racing game. If Dominican knew winning more would have kept his balls and pointed him towards early retirement as a stud, he would have run faster. So, even though I can't completely rule out his dislike of dirt, I had to include him as a possible. Then he got the 19th post position. I don't care if he is a closer, I've got to throw him out. Told you there were too many horses in this damn race.