The Preakness

After winning money on the Derby two weeks ago, I would be smart to stay away from the Preakness. But I can't. Especially since this year's race is much more interesting than a lot of Preakness Stakes' in the past. Too often, you get one or two good horses and the rest filler. That makes for good viewing with the match race concept, but not good handicapping. Actually, it becomes bad viewing like 2003 when the only two quality horses were Funny Cide and Peace Rules, but it bombed when Peace Rules flopped. The place horse, Midway Road, was coming out of an allowance race. That's how bad that field was. Last year was set up to be a great race when talented but untested Bernardini was coming in fresh to face Barbaro coming off a monster Kentucky Derby win. Sadly, that race was interesting for all the wrong reasons. This year should be good handicapping and viewing.

I like Street Sense an awful lot, and not just because I won some good money on him. I won't win squat if I bet him in the Preakness and he wins because the odds are going to be much smaller. I would really like to see him win the Triple Crown, but I can see the other three horses coming in from the Derby winning the race. In fact, a lot of people think he's very beatable. The belief among them is Street Sense had the perfect ride at his favorite track (also his jockey's home track) when he got to the rail the way he did, and now everyone will be looking for him to go there. Hard Spun should get a lot of play because he looked good leading a good chunk of the Derby and holding on for second. With a shorter distance at Pimlico, he could hold on this time. Plus, his jockey knows Pimlico well. The other two Derby veterans had some traffic issues two weeks ago. Curlin went into the Derby as a highly successful but lightly raced horse who had never really been tested. He is clearly a talented horse so there is definitely room for improvement. So, a better a trip could mean going from a Derby third to a Preakness first. Circular Quay finished sixth in the Derby, but was only a bit out of third. He made his move at the same time as Street Sense, but he got caught six wide which left him too far back. With only nine horses compared to the Derby's 20, the Preakness should have fewer traffic problems. Plus, he was coming off a long layoff. Could be sharper today.

Of course, those three horses aren't without blemishes. While Circular Quay did have to go around horses on the outside, he didn't show me an explosive kick like Street Sense had. In much the same way, Curlin did have traffic problems at the Derby, but they weren't terrible, and he got free but couldn't gain ground on Hard Spun running second. Now, Hard Spun's jockey may be familiar with Pimlico, but that doesn't mean Hard Spun is. He's never raced there, so I don't know if he'll take to that track the way Street Sense did with Churchill. And the funniest part about people pointing out Street Sense's "perfect trip" is that Hard Spun's trainer, Larry Jones, is leading the pack on it. Well, that's pretty ironic since I thought Hard Spun got the perfect trip for him, and it didn't get him the win at Churchill Downs. He got the early lead, set the pace and watched Street Sense blow by him. And Street Sense was on cruise control down to the finish line. In fact, if jockey Calvin Borel didn't start celebrating early, that 2 1/4 length victory would have been stretched quite a bit farther. And I doubt Hard Spun will be setting the pace today. Three newcomers (Xchanger, King of the Roxy and Flying First Class) will all likely try to set a fast pace. Hard Spun has come off the pace before, but not against quality competition. I'm not sure he's ready for it.

So, does this mean I think Street Sense will win the Preakness? Actually, yes. It's not a certainty (and it never is in horse racing) since the Preakness is a different animal than the Derby. He probably won't be able to drop as far back as he did in the Derby. However, I'm more concerned with Curlin and Circular Quay improving than Street Sense not getting back. Now, it is true that Street Sense had a great trip in the Derby. Of course, that could mean the jockey knew his horse really well leading to the win. Borel is known for riding the rail, but he doesn't necessarily have to. There will be 11 fewer horses than in the Derby, so Street Sense could go outside and still not get more than three wide. The odds of Street Sense getting a good trip should be better in this race. What I like about him is the acceleration he showed in the Derby. He should be able to go where he wants to. Remember, horses don't really run in a straight line around the track. Street Sense doesn't need a big hole to blow through. Now, at 7-5 odds (my guess for post time), I would normally try to beat him, but I hate to root for a horse when I have money on another one. So, I'll do a modest win bet, and then try to supplement that by betting place/shows and exotics. I'm thinking an exacta of Street Sense over Circular Quay.