NFL Divisional Round - Saturday Picks

Seattle @ Green Bay
This the game with all the subplots (which we see so much of the time). The West Coast offense isn't used that much anymore, but here's a matchup of two of them. Brett Favre is facing Mike Holmgren who coached Favre to his only Super Bowl appearances. Matt Hasselbeck playing against the team that he started with. Seattle thinks they have better polka dancing than Green Bay. Okay, I made one of those up. There's been a lot made of the fact that the last time Hasselbeck was in a playoff game in Green Bay, the Seahawks won the overtime coin toss leading to Hasselbeck's proclamation (via the ref's microphone) that "we want the ball and we're going to score." Then the Packers won on an interception returned for a touchdown. To be honest, I thought Hasselbeck got a bad rap for making the statement. If you're a fan of a team, would you prefer that your quarterback announce he wants the ball, but expects to lose?

Actually, I don't think Seattle will lose because Hasselbeck will say something stupid. I think they'll lose for various other reasons. For one, I think Green Bay's defense is a bit better (although not much). I also think Seattle's running game is flat atrocious. It's ironic because they have the big name (and do-nothing) back in Shaun Alexander, and Green Bay was once seen as a long shot Super Bowl contender due to a lack of running game. However, Ryan Grant has given them a solid option there. However, the main reason that I'm picking Green Bay is because Seattle sucks on the road. They're 3-5 with wins over non-playoff teams San Francisco, St. Louis and Philly. They've also got losses on the road to non-playoff teams Arizona, Cleveland, Carolina and Atlanta. The only playoff team they faced on the road was Pittsburgh with a 21-0 loss. I don't see them suddenly being better in Green Bay.

Jacksonville @ New England
A lot of people don't seem to be giving Jacksonville a chance. They're a 13 point underdog (huge for a playoff game). I think I saw Merrill Hoge predict a 44-17 score. Now, I'm not saying the Patriots can't blow out Jacksonville. I've seen too many teams this year play scared against New England and let the game get out of control (see Washington in week 8). One area of weakness for the Jaguars has been pass defense where they were mid-pack all season. That isn't a good weakness against a team that throws a ton. Plus, there is the fact that in two games against the Steelers, the Jags got a big lead and let Pittsburgh back into it. While David Garrard has played mostly error free football this year for Jacksonville, he had two crucial interceptions last week. New England is good at exploiting those.

Now, on the other hand, I think Jacksonville has a good shot. Defensively, the Jags may not be that great against the pass, but they do get a lot of sacks. They also like to knock the Hell out of you. Physical teams have given the Patriots problems in the past. On offense, Garrard isn't a gunslinger type of quarterback, but that isn't bad thing. Game managers (think AJ Feeley ), even lousy ones (thing Kyle Boller) had some success against the Patriots. Plus, Garrard can take off and run which is the key for them. New England's rush defense was ranked 10th in the league, but that's average yards per game which is skewed by how many teams abandoned the run against the Patriots because they were down early. Only four teams gave up more yards per carry than the Patriots. The Patriots can be run on. I think Jacksonville will cover the 13 point spread, but am I willing to pick a Jaguar win? Sure. Why not? I think the Jags do it.