BCS Title Game

Before getting into why I'm picking who I'm picking, I left out the most fun that came from watching the Music City Bowl at Phil's house. Florida State has a wide receiver named De' Cody Fagg. Nothing brings out the juvenile humor like a funny name. I'm surprised he hasn't thought about changing it. But I guess he likes the name De' Cody.

On to the BCS Championship Game between Ohio State and LSU. Ohio State is number one in the BCS rankings and pretty much every poll. Which is obviously why LSU is about a 4 point favorite. This is based on a couple of things. One is the belief that the SEC is much better than the Big 10. Another is the fact that Ohio State was absolutely destroyed by Florida in the BCS Championship Game last year. I pretty much was feeling the same way when the bowl season started, but some things are making me rethink those assumptions.

Let's start with the second assumption that Ohio State found out last year that they can't compete with a top SEC team. Well, that was last year. Ohio State got drubbed 41-14 by Florida, but the game just got out of hand late, and we have two different teams. To begin with, LSU isn't as good as last year's Florida team. There's been a lot of talk about LSU's defense, but Florida 2006 was better. The most points scored against that team was 28 by #11 Arkansas. LSU is doing things like giving up 34 to a piss poor Alabama and 24 to a really weak Ole Miss. I don't see the domination that we were supposed to have out of LSU this year. Plus, LSU isn't remotely as good at quarterback as Florida was. Tim Tebow won the Heisman this year, but he was second string last year behind Chris Leak who had a big game against Ohio State.

It's not just the SEC team that's different. Ohio State is. I didn't think Troy Smith was all that good (giving him the Heisman was a joke) last year, and he proved it against Florida as he completed 4 out of 14 passes. I think this year's starter, Todd Boeckman, is better than Smith was. But that's not the only change on offense. Last year, the Buckeyes had Antonio Pittman as their lead runner. He was very good. Chris Wells is even better. I thought he should have played more last year. And it's not just offensively. Ohio State's defense is better. Still, is it enough for a 27 point swing?

Now, onto the other assumption that the SEC is so much better than the Big 10. I certainly thought so. And I still think it's better, but is it that much better? I'm not so sure after watching the bowl games. The SEC has won, but the reality is they haven't dominated anything. Two wins against mid-major teams (three if you consider Colorado a mid-major). Even against other BCS teams, most were squeakers even if the other team was missing half its team. If the lower level teams weren't dominating lower level teams from other conferences, the assumption is the best of the SEC won't dominate the best of another conference. The two bowl games that made me completely rethink this were the Capital One Bowl (MICH 41 F:A 35) and Cotton Bowl (Missou 38 ARK 7). The Capital One Bowl was the lower level version of the BCS Title Game with SEC speed versus Big 10 Brawn. Brawn won and more convincingly than the score indicated. The Cotton Bowl had Arkansas in their first game since running all over LSU, and they were completely shut down by Missouri (I don't want to hear about them having an interim coach; see Fiesta Bowl).

So, I have to say I don't see the SEC dominance being what it was originally thought which means we have to look at motivation. Which team wants it more. LSU does have some motivation. They were hot at the start of the season and were supposed to dominate the rest of the season, but they really stumbled late. A big win changes the perception about them. On the other hand, I think Ohio State definitely wants to prove last year's title game was a fluke. In BCS title games, it began with the clear favorite winning. Then came 2003 when defending champion Miami was expected to dominate Ohio State, but lost (on a really bad pass interference call). Then Oklahoma was favored over LSU and lost. Southern Cal re-established the favorite winning the next year, but then got beat the next year by clear underdog Texas. Then last year, Ohio State was a big favorite and lost. So, in recent years, when a team is expected to lose, they don't. That certainly favors Ohio State.

Is all that enough to make me think Ohio State can pull out a win? Tough call. The problem is that coach Jim Tressel may not loosen up enough and throw caution to the wind (that's what Michigan did) which I think would help. A conservative gameplan is asking for trouble. What is making me lean towards Ohio State is the bowl records. LSU looked shaky all year against SEC teams who didn't look that good against teams on the same level or below. Obviously with several weeks off to prepare, LSU could focus enough to take down anyone. However, I'm going out on a limb (not really since I'm not putting money on the game) and taking Ohio State in an upset.