Super Bowl

As I said before, this Super Bowl sucks (and in deference to Phil, let me point out that I will be watching it on Ski Trip 2008: Knocking Boots In The Woods). I don’t like either team. I hope they both lose. I’m not sure how that can happen unless the Patriots win, but we find out later they were massively cheating. That would be my best case scenario. Then the Jared Lorenzen replaces an ineffective Eli Manning and leads the Giants to victory and utter embarrassment for the Patriots. Still, I guess I have to pick someone. I know a lot of people who are predicting the Patriots will blow them out. I’ve seen several others predicting the Giants will win, but for some reason, they seem to work for New York media outlets. There may be a connection there, but I choose not to delve into it.

Now, gambling-wise, I wouldn’t touch this game at all. On one hand, the Patriots haven’t been covering the spread in the second half of the season. That’s why the gamblers have bet an opening line of 13 ½ points down to 12. On the other hand, the Patriots are undefeated. They have the more potent offense. To be honest, I would be more likely to lean towards the Patriots covering 12 points. In fact, I could completely see the Patriots run away with it.

It’s not that the Giants don’t have some things going for them. They are in the Super Bowl. They did take the Pats to the wire in week 17. Some are pointing out how tested they are by winning 10 road games, including all three in the playoffs. The last team to make the Super Bowl after winning three road games in the playoffs was Pittsburgh who beat Seattle two years ago. Of course, if you look at that historical trend, the 1985 New England Patriots won three playoff road games on their way to the Super Bowl. After an admirable lack of effort, they managed to keep the score within a respectable 36 points against the Bears. You see, that’s the main reason I would discount this playoff road victory crap. The Steelers were facing a Seattle team with a nice record, but no one thought they were a really strong team. Plus, the Steelers played in the AFC which was also the much better conference two years ago. Much like today. Unfortunately for the Giants, they play in the weaker conference. So, you have a juggernaut of a team that will (with a win) go down as one of the all time greats playing a non-division winner from a weaker conference. That’s exactly what the ’85 Bears trouncing the ’85 Patriots was.

So, I can easily see this year’s Patriots steam-rolling a win. I’m not sure I think it’s more likely than the Patriots covering the spread, but I do think it’s more likely than the Giants winning. I’m not going to the stupid argument that the Patriots will now be more focused because the Giants are running their mouths. For one, Michael Strahan is right. How much better are the Patriots going to play? It’s the friggin’ Super Bowl. For another, how badly are media people when they make a big deal about Plaxico Burress predicting a 23-17 win or Antonio Pierce saying they aren’t there “to play second fiddle to anyone”? Give me a break. Are they supposed to say they just hope to keep it close? Are the Patriots going to pump themselves up by saying the Giants came to the Super Bowl not expecting to lose?

I just don’t think the Giants are as good as the Patriots. The Giants have a good defense and running game. I still think Eli Manning’s sole benefit to the team in the playoffs has been not screwing up. Their wins were never by more than 10 points and were over Tampa (decent team, but not really scary), Dallas (with Romo self-destructing again) and Green Bay (in bad weather which the Packers, ironically, didn’t seem to handle well). Now, the Giants did beat them. However, none of those teams are of the caliber of the Patriots. Burress said that the Giants’ have better receivers than the Patriots, but he’s stupid. They don’t. I find it very unlikely that Tom Brady will self-destruct like Romo did. Add to that the fact that Laurence Maroney has run good when the Patriots actually give the ball to him. And considering the game is in Arizona, the weather isn’t going to affect the Patriots’ passing game. As I said, the Giants’ defense has played well in the playoffs, and some people think it played well against the Patriots the first time around. Not sure how giving up 38 points at home is playing well.

I think the key for the Giants is controlling the clock with the running game. They did come out throwing in the first game, but I think the Patriots weren’t expecting that. They will this time. So, keep the Patriots offense off the field. Michael Turner was able to smash the Patriots defensive line, so that’s a plus for Brandon Jacobs. Ahmad Bradshaw has the speed to really cause problems for the Patriots’ linebackers. I don’t think Burress will get open against the Patriots the way he did against the Packers. Actually, I think the Patriots will actually adjust if he is getting open against them. The best chance to win could be on that Giants’ defense. They’ve got to hold because the Giants won’t win a shootout. They have too many drives that fall apart at crucial moments. In the first game, the Giants were more than matching the Patriots as they held a 28-16 lead after scoring on the first drive in the second half. They didn’t score again until the last drive with a minute left when they pulled within 38-35. The Patriots can score three unanswered touchdowns. The question is can the Giants? I don’t think so. Nor do I think Manning’s streak of not screwing up will continue. So, the Patriots win. If I had to bet, I would take them to cover the spread.