Preliminary BCS Games

Rose Bowl (Jan 1): Southern Cal vs. Illinois - Let me just say for the record that the Rose Bowl is run by a bunch of moron. Many analysts think Southern Cal and Georgia were playing as well or better than anyone at the end of the year (I would include Oklahoma in that group). The Rose Bowl gets Southern Cal as the PAC 10 winner, but instead of picking top 5 BCS team Georgia to give us one of the better bowl games of the season, they take Illinois who barely made the cut as a BCS eligible team. Why? They wanted to keep that foolish tradition of Big 10/Pac 10 in the Rose Bowl. That's stupid. They can continue calling the Rose Bowl "The Granddaddy of Them All", but the reality is that in my lifetime, the Rose Bowl has hardly been a game that I pay that much attention to. It's rarely been a factor in the title picture, and when it has, it's been a bad matchup to watch. Ironically, the best Rose Bowl I ever saw was the 2006 game when Texas beat Southern Cal for the national title. This was a matchup that never would have happened until the BCS system came into being. As for this game, I'm not saying Illinois can't win. They did beat Ohio State. Both teams have a bad loss - USC to Stanford, Illinois to Iowa. Illinois could actually have a better chance in this game than other Big 10 teams since they are built more for speed than your typical Big 10 squad. However, I think Southern Cal is better on both sides of the ball and should win this one.

Sugar Bowl (Jan 1): Georgia vs. Hawaii - In all honesty, this could be a laugher. The only chance Hawaii has is to turn this game into a shootout because they've got an offense that can score. Which is why a Hawaiian win isn't impossible. Any team that can score 554 points in a season can be dangerous. And Georgia has been known to throw in clunker this year. However, they just aren't on the level of a Georgia that can actually play defense. Some believe that Boise State's win over Oklahoma in the Fiesta Bowl last year is why Hawaii could be competitive. However, last year's Boise State team was much better than this year's Hawaii. Hawaii needed overtime to beat Louisiana Tech and San Jose State - two teams that had losing records. So, I think Georgia's got this one.

Fiesta Bowl (Jan 2): West Virginia vs. Oklahoma - I was leaning towards Oklahoma in this one from the beginning. I think with a healthy Pat White, West Virginia can beat anyone. However, I would take Oklahoma over anyone right now. They were rolling at the end of the year with their only late loss coming against Texas Tech when quarterback Sam Bradford was out hurt. But now there's a change in the situation with West Virginia coach Rich Rodriguez leaving for Michigan. The easy school of thought is that the team will certainly be hurt with a smaller staff and flux at the head coaching position. On the other hand, you never know how players will react to stuff like this. Michigan basketball fired their head coach at the beginning of the 1989 NCAA tournament for accepting a job at AZ St. for the next year. As a 3 seed, they weren't a favorite to win it all, but they did just that under an interim coach. It's tough to tell how the Mountaineer players will react. The fans are angry (see yesterday's posting), but the players don't seem to be all that bent out of shape (but who knows about the locker room). I don't know if that is good or bad. Are they resigned to fate and going to come out flat? Or are they confident in themselves and wanting to prove they can win without him? I don't know, so I'm sticking with my original gut pick of Oklahoma.

Orange Bowl (Jan 3): Virginia Tech vs. Kansas - I'm not a big ACC fan this year. Or last year for that matter. The question for Virginia Tech is: are they better than when they got beat 48-7 at LSU? I'm sure they are. Their only other loss on the season was to Boston College. Kansas' only loss period was to Missouri by 8. I'm going with Kansas for the simple reason that they were second in points scored this year to Virginia Tech's 51st. Now, the perception is that Virginia Tech has a more powerful defense, but Kansas actually gave up fewer points this year. Even worse for Tech is that the top 25 in scoring offenses is full of Big 12 teams, but only one ACC team. That means Kansas faced higher scoring teams than Virginia Tech, but still held their opponents to fewer points.