College Bowl Picks Part I

It's the bowl season. I'm not doing my picks based on point spreads, because I think it's nuts to bet on most bowl games. Too many variables screw up how they play out. Some teams have been off a month or more. Some teams are pumped to just be in a bowl, while others thought they would be in a better bowl and just may not be into it.

Instead of doing my bowl game picks all at once, I'm breaking it down into at least two sections. It might seem that I'm just being prudent by waiting until closer to game time to make selections. After all, the Fiesta Bowl has certainly changed with West Virginia's coach leaving for Michigan, and some Florida State players may end up suspended for the Music City Bowl. However, the fact is I don't have a lot of time at the moment, and bowl games start in two days. So, here are my picks for bowls between through December 30 (winners in italics):

Poinsetta Bowl (Dec 20): Utah vs. Navy - Navy lost their head coach to Ga. Tech, but kept their offensive coordinator who also specializes in the option. So offense should still be good. Utah's offense got a lot better as the season went on, but it still isn't in the same league as Navy's. Still, I'm picking Utah because their defense is a lot better than Navy's
New Orleans (Dec 21): Fla. Atlantic vs. Memphis - Memphis is hot after winning five of their last six games. Four of FAU's losses were to BCS conference teams. Their one conference loss was to LA-Monroe who also beat Alabama. Being the sentimental type, I'll go with former UL coach Howard Schnelleberger's FAU team.
Papajohns.com (Dec 22): Cincinnati vs. Southern Miss - I don't believe in karma, but Southern Miss deserves to lose for forcing out coach Jeff Bowers who has made them one of the most successful mid-major football programs in the country while spurning bigger name schools attempts to get him to leave. But I think they lose anyway because Cincinnati is a better team.
New Mexico (Dec 22): New Mexico vs. Nevada - This is a home game for New Mexico which is an edge. Nevada has a very potent offense which is an edge. I think the Mountain West Conference is better than the WAC. Add to that the fact that Nevada has a lousy defense and I'm taking New Mexico.
Las Vegas (Dec 22): BYU vs. UCLA - UCLA beat BYU in week 2, but they swooned after that, while BYU went on a roll. Outcome will be different this time.
Hawaii (Dec 23): East Carolina vs. Boise State - Odd to see the Hawaii Bowl without Hawaii. The bowl committee likes having them because most schools have trouble sending fans. I would like to pick East Carolina in this game because they knew they weren't taking any fans, so they set up a system for their fans to buy a ticket, get a commemorative souvenir ticket and have their seat given to a serviceman stationed in Hawaii. Still, I can't see them beating Boise State.
Motor City (Dec 26): Central Michigan vs. Purdue: Much like the Las Vegas Bowl, this is a rematch from earlier in the season. While Purdue thumped CMU then, there's evidence that the rematch could be different. Purdue's slumping, CMU is surging and it's a neutral site. I'm going with different.
Holiday (Dec 27): Arizona St. vs. Texas: While I think Texas is overrated, I think Arizona State has struggled in big games this year. Take Texas.
Champ Sports (Dec 28): Boston College vs. Michigan State - I'm not big on the ACC this year, but I don't think much of the Big 10 either, so in theory, the second best ACC team should be better than a mid-pack Big 10 team. However, this is the classic Happy To Be Here (Michigan St hasn't been to any bowl in 4 years) vs. Sucks To Be Here (BC was planning for the Orange Bowl). Still, I think BC has the talent to win this and will.
Texas (Dec 28): Houston vs. TCU - Truly is the Texas Bowl. Fortunately, I'll be back in town on the 28th so I can watch it (the folks don't have NFL Network). Houston can score, but not play defense. TCU can play defense, but can't score like Houston. Houston lost their coach. TCU underachieved this year. Still, it's an easy call. It's a de facto TCU home game, and they are tough at home.
Emerald (Dec 28): Maryland vs. Oregon St. - Oregon State finished third in the PAC-10, while Maryland was 6-6 in a weak ACC. Still, with wins over Rutgers and BC, Maryland is Jekyll and Hyde, so I'm not sure I would pick against them. On the other hand, it's a west coast game, so I think Hyde will show up. Take Oregon St.
Meineke Car Care (Dec 29): UCONN vs. Wake Forrest - Another de facto home game for one team - Wake. UCONN only beats weak teams on the road. However, Wake doesn't beat ranked teams this year, and UCONN is ranked 25. UCONN is kind of a fraud. They had no quality road wins. Going with Wake.
Liberty (Dec 29): Miss St vs. Central Florida - Yeah, Sylvester Croom...first black football coach in SEC.....coach of the year.....yadayadayada. Croom got coach of the year for exceeding expectations. Watch this for one guy - Kevin Smith. He can flat out run. Go with Central Florida.
Alamo (Dec 29): Penn State vs. Texas A&M - Penn State is usually tough in bowl games. Texas A&M finished the regular season by beating Texas. And firing their coach. Of course, they beat Texas to finish last season before getting spanked in their bowl. I don't think either team is very good, but I'll take Joe Paterno.
Independence (Dec 30): Colorado vs. Alabama - This would be a good game....if we were still in the early 90s. We're not. We've got two mediocre 6-6 teams. Colorado lost two of their last four. Alabama lost their last four including to Louisiana-Monroe. Bama isn't very good.