Friday, July 01, 2005

The NBA Draft

I love college basketball. I’m pretty indifferent to the NBA. In fact, I still root for the Utah Jazz simply because they drafted my favorite college player, Darrell Griffith, in 1980. So, naturally, I don’t like the fact that so many basketball players are leaving school early or making the jump to the NBA straight from high school (or were until the new CBA goes into effect). However, anyone who tells you these guys are making a mistake isn’t doing it out of concern for the player. To begin with, who knows if they are making a mistake. Let’s look at a couple of local boys who didn’t get drafted. Randolph Morris made his mistake not going pro last year when he probably would have been drafted, but what were his options this year? He was apparently unhappy at UK, so he could either stay and be miserable (and he may come back and do it), transfer and sit out a year or go pro. Kalenna Azubuike left as a junior. Would coming back have made a difference? I doubt it. Keith Bogans went back to UK because he was projected as a second round pick after his sophomore year. Two years later, he managed to move into…..well, the second round.

That’s the main point. Who knows if a player will really improve his status by staying. The knock against Morris is that he’s supposedly lazy. How will NBA teams seeing more college film of that help him? Scouts aren’t sure that Azubuike can create his own shot in the NBA, but would he be able to learn that in another year at UK when the offense doesn’t seem suited for it? I’m not buying the argument that college coaching is going to help prepare these guys for the NBA better than NBA coaching. College coaches want to win first, prepare their players for the NBA …well, somewhere down the list. Take Jared Jefferies who led Indiana to the 2002 NCAA Championship game and declared for the NBA after his sophomore year. There was one columnist (Rick Bozich of the Louisville Courier I think) who criticized him during his NBA rookie year. Said he would have been better off staying at Indiana and playing instead of sitting on the bench in the NBA. Sheer fuckin’ genius. He was the 11th pick in the draft. How much higher could he have gone. At Indiana, he would have been unpaid and playing center. In the NBA, he was getting great money and NBA coaching at his natural position – forward. Compare him to Udonis Haslem who also went pro in 2002, but as a senior. He had led Florida to the NCAA championship game as a sophomore, but after coming back the next two years, he went undrafted. I don’t know if he would have been drafted very high after his sophomore year, but I bet he would have been drafted. He spent a year in France before coming back to the states and is now a better playing than Jefferies, but probably makes less money.

Since there are no guarantees coming back, I can’t criticize too much when someone leaves early, especially if the NBA does beef up the Development League into a real minor league. Take those high schoolers who went in the second round. Are they screwed? Maybe. Probably not. Could they become first round picks if they go to school? Sure. Guaranteed? What do you think? There’s still going to only be 31 first round slots. Under the new NBA-DL, they can sign with a team that will send them down while retaining their rights. The team can send an assistant coach with them so they’ll be coached with the emphasis on their pro game. If they are good enough, they can get to the big leagues. Being a second rounder won’t be such a bad thing anymore. Gilbert Arenas was a second round pick in 2001. As a second rounder, he signed a two year deal for little money. Two years later, he was a free agent who signed for six years - $65 million. I imagine that made him the highest paid member of the class of 2001 since all the first rounders were still playing under their rookie contract. Believe me, if a player is really good enough, he’ll make it. It's not guaranteed, but neither is returning to school.

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