BCS Bowls

Rose Bowl (Jan 1): Penn State vs. Southern Cal - This is called the Granddaddy of them all or some such stuff. I think it’s a load of crap, because it was the last major bowl to agree to the BCS system because they were so wedded to the Big Ten/PAC 10 matchup. Well, look at the list of Rose Bowls. I watch a lot of college football. The two best Rose Bowls I ever saw were Texas over Southern Cal and Michigan in back to back seasons. You might notice that Texas is not in those two conferences. The last Rose Bowl that included PAC 10 versus Big Ten and was worth watching was the 1998 Michigan win over Washington State. So, not having that matchup was helpful to the Rose Bowl, but we’re back to the PAC 10 versus Big Ten. Now a lot of people are expecting Southern Cal to beat down Penn State because the Big 10 has been absolutely hammered by opponents in recent BCS bowl games. However, there’s a couple of things that make it could be closer. Penn State’s offense was just as good as USC’s, and I don’t think PAC 10 defenses are a lot better than Big 10 ones. However, people think USC’s offense is disappointing so it’s not saying much to say Penn State is as good. Penn State squashed Oregon State who beat Southern Cal. However that was a road game for Southern Cal and home for Penn State. Plus, Southern Cal destroyed Ohio State who Penn State barely beat. Still, it does show that this really could be an even matchup. The X-factor could be Joe Paterno. Sure, he’s past his prime, but he’s still got one of the best bowl game winning percentages (23-10-1). Even lately, he’s still 9-2 since joining the Big 10 in 1993. Still, I think playing Southern Cal in the Rose Bowl is too much. Penn State’s offense isn’t really better than the Trojans. And I don’t think their defense is near as good. Southern Cal probably has the best defense in the country this year. So, I think Big 10 struggles in BCS games will continue.

Orange Bowl (Jan 1): Cincinnati vs. Virginia Tech - Cincinnati just does whatever it takes to win. Sure, I could pick them to win because Louisville plays in the Big East. However, the Big East has won their last three BCS games (one of which I attended). I can’t remember the last BCS game the ACC won. So, while I wouldn’t necessarily take Cincinnati over most of the other BCS teams, I’ll take them over Virginia Tech any day. I think they got lucky to catch Georgia Tech early because Georgia Tech is better now than Virginia Tech. Virginia Tech still has the solid defense, but Cincinnati does just fine on that side of the ball. I really don’t see any Tech offensive player that I find that frightening. I know Cincinnati has a couple of really good receivers in Marshwan Gilyard and Dominick Goodman. Sure, Tech has a better running game, but I think that is more likely to keep the game close. Unfortunately for them, Cincinnati has a habit of winning close games. Plus, I didn’t care too much for the ACC this year.

Sugar Bowl (Jan 1): Alabama vs. Utah - Ah, the BCS buster against the old school SEC team. For the second time, Utah has finished undefeated and given a chance to play in a BCS bowl. They won the last time but it was against Pitt at the time the Big East was reorganizing. However, Boise State also won their BCS trip two years ago. Of course, Hawaii got thumped last year in the Sugar Bowl. However, that Hawaii team was nowhere as good as this year’s Utah team. And there is a lot to like about Utah’s chances. I like their quarterback, Brian Johnson, a lot. If they can keep pressure off him, he can do some stuff. If they can’t, Utah is screwed because they don’t have much of a running game. Bama does have a good running game, but a weak quarterback. That could be a problem because their best offensive lineman just got suspended. And Utah is good against the run. So, if Utah can get some offensive scoring, they’ve got a shot. It’s not like Alabama has been a juggernaut. Yes, they won all their games until Florida, but they didn’t wow you too much. They thumped obviously overmatched teams and struggled against some mediocre ones. So, if they let Utah have an opening, it could be a problem for them. So, am I willing to pick Utah? No. I’ll go with Bama. I think their defense is just too strong. In fact, I think it Alabama does blow out Utah, it’ll be like their win over Georgia. Defense got them rolling with turnovers and good field position and Georgia just couldn’t catch up.

Fiesta Bowl (Jan 5): Texas vs. Ohio State - Did I mention how little respect I have for the Big Ten? The word I’m hearing is that Ohio State should have a good game because they’ve won their last four Fiesta Bowls. Well, one was in 1984. One was against a bad Notre Dame that had no business being there. One was a decent Kansas State team. One was a win over Miami aided by a BS pass interference call in overtime. Basically, those wins don’t mean anything to me. What I look at is the fact that the last two times Ohio State has faced a team with speed, they got thumped. Now, maybe this time will be different because the pressure of a national title game won’t be there. Ohio State did keep it close against Penn State, but the only other quality team they played was Southern Cal and they got thumped. Texas has only one loss. That was at the last minute to another one loss team on the road with a great play made. I think Texas has as much business being in the title game as Oklahoma. So, I certainly don’t think they’ll lose to Ohio State.

BCS Title Game (Jan 8): Florida vs. Oklahoma - This is an interesting game. I could see it being a great game with a close score. I could see it being a blowout by either team. It's the two best conferences matched up. I think the Big 12 is certainly better this year. Does that mean I think Oklahoma will win? Not necessarily. Against any other team in the SEC, sure. Florida? That's a tough call. I think Florida is a whole lot better than the rest of the SEC. I can't say that about Oklahoma and the Big 12. Since losing to Mississippi, Florida dominated until they got challenged by Alabama in the title game. But at the same time, Oklahoma has only had one team within 22 points since losing to Texas and that included an undefeated Texas Tech. I think Florida has a great defense, but I'm really impressed by Oklahoma's offense. They have scored over 61 points in six straight games. That's impressive. It's an interesting case. I don't think Oklahoma had to face such a defense in the Big 12, but I don't think there was an offense even remotely this good in the SEC. I have to go with the six straight 61 point games.