The First Pick

I'm shocked. Absolutely shocked about the Texans drafting Mario Williams. Not that they took Williams over Reggie Bush, because as I said before, I don't think there are any sure things in the draft. No, what shocks me is how bent out of shape so many analysts are because they didn't take Bush. I thought Bush as the second coming of Gale Sayers was a stretch, but I wasn't aware that he was the second coming of Sayers, Barry Sanders, and Jesus Christ himself. This is the NFL draft. Probably a third of the people drafted in the first round are going to underachieve and some will be absolute flops. It doesn't necessarily have to be caused by lack of NFL ability (Aundray Bruce, 1st pick 1988) or attitude (Ryan Leaf, 2nd pick 1998). I'm still not convinced that Ki-Jana Carter was a flop, because who knows what would have happened if he doesn't blow out his knee before playing a regular season game. Yet, predicting greatness in the NFL for a college player is silly. So many things can derail it. Even consensus picks can flop. San Diego wasn't the only one fooled by Leaf. Every team in the country had Leaf and Peyton Manning 1 and 2. Yet, it still doesn't stop the fevered hyperbole. The worst was network clown Michael Irvin (no surprise there) who had the gall to say the Texans just gave up 2000 yards and 25 to 30 touchdowns. Apparently per year. If Bush does that, he'll be the greatest NFL player of all time. Does this mean IrvinDoes that mean Irvin thinks Bush is better than Emmitt Smith? After all, even assuming the 2000 is total yards, Emmitt Smith only broke 2000 twice (never rushed for 2000). Smith also only had one season of 25 touchdowns, and only had more than 15 three times. Granted, he wasn't alone. Someone pointed out the Bills once took a defensive end with the first pick (Bruce Smith) who was an essential piece of their four straight Super Bowl appearances. Tom Jackson said Bruce Smith wasn't as important to them as Thurman Thomas. Of course, that could make it seem smarter to draft a defensive player. Thomas was a second round pick and the eighth running back taken. It might be easier to find a franchise back in later rounds. Actually, the new coach of the Texans, Gary Kubiak, came over from Denver where they specialize in turning late rounders into stars. Does that mean Bush will flop? Nope. He could easily be better than Williams. He could be the greatest player to play the game, but projecting a Hall of Fame career before he steps foot on an NFL field is ludicrous.

I was actually a little surprised the Texans took Williams over D'Brickashaw Ferguson since their offensive line is getting David Carr killed. Of course, taking Ferguson number one would have brought about my other pet peeve about the draft - THE REACH. It's a case of a team targeting a player they really like (good fit for system or fills a need) and taking them before the "consensus" indicates he should go. The conventional wisdom is that if you want a player most think should go around the 25th pick, you shouldn't "reach" and take him with the 17th pick. You should trade down and get him later. The Rams did it this year when they targeted Tye Hill who was considered a "reach" at 11, but traded down and got him at 15. However, the reason I get ticked is because when the "pundits" say a team could have traded down and drafted the guy, they neglect two things - 1) someone else right behind you could target him 2) someone has to be willing to trade with you. If you want someone, why is taking him a few picks ahead of where anyone else will take him so bad? Does it really make sense that Ferguson was considered a reach with the first pick, but still considered a top five talent? Besides, take the case of Lofa Tatupu who the Seahawks took in the second round. Most analysts projected him as a third rounder so Seattle was roundly criticized for taking him that early even though he fit a need and the system. Considering how well he played during their run to the Super Bowl, he should have been a first rounder.