UL Vs. UK

Well, I guess I have to make a prediction on the UL/UK football game. Past few years it has been pretty easy as UL was clearly the more talented team. Plus, they had the edge in coaching. A lot of people (even a lot of UL fans) didn’t like Bobby Petrino because he could be an ass. I liked him because he was shark. He was there to win, and that’s what he did. Even better, when we’d lose (only 9 times in four years), he didn’t make excuses. He just fixed the problem. Unfortunately, I’m not sure the new guy has that type of killer instinct. His record indicates that he’s a good coach, but I’m not sure he has that extra edge.

And as I said, the talent level isn’t as far apart as it has been in the past, especially in the offensive backfield. Mainly because Andre Woodson got good last year. I still think Brian Brohm is better than Woodson, but it’s not like night and day as it was two years ago. Woodson actually had the higher stats last year, but that was because UK was throwing a lot. UL had 35 rushing touchdowns (57 total) which wasn’t much fewer than UK’s 43 total (31 passing, 12 rushing). Still, a hot Woodson is definitely dangerous. Running backs are pretty even, just different. For UK, Rafael Little, Tony Dixon and Alfonso Smith are good. I think the one drawback to them is they are essentially the same type of runner. With UL, they’ve got pounders in Anthony Allen and Brock Bolen, and then speed backs in Sergio Spencer and George Stripling. Ironically, it was big back Allen who ran for 275 yards this past week. After that 275 yards, I would normally give UL the edge. However, Bolen and Spencer got dinged against MTSU, and UL’s new coach is highly secretive about injuries. If they don’t play, that gives the edge to UK.

Also on offense are the receivers. Another area that UK got better at last year. Keenan Burton is a stud, while Dicky Lyons has become pretty good. For UL, Mario Urrutia is like Burton. Tall and fast. Unlike Burton, the jump ball isn’t his forte. He gets the most press because of his pro potential, but Harry Douglas is actually the best receiver out of the four. He averaged over 18 yards per reception while going for 1265 yards. He can go deep or across the middle. UK has a preseason all-SEC tight end in Jacob Tamme, but I still give UL the edge with Gary Barnidge. Last year, he was in an offense that didn’t emphasize tight ends, yet he was only one reception behind Tamme but had 125 more yards and twice as many touchdowns (4-2). Now, he’s in an offense that does go to the tight end more, and he’s got 4 touchdowns already.

Then there is the offensive line. I give a huge edge to Louisville’s offensive line. They’ve got three full time starters returned from last year’s strong offensive line. Another player was last year’s top reserve and a part time starter. They’ve allowed no sacks this year while blowing open holes so that Allen gained 275 yards. On the other side is UK’s line. It wasn’t that good last year (gave up 39 sacks). The other problem is the five combined for 16 starts before this season. However, 12 were by Garry Williams. Guard Jason Leger had three last year, but he started the season as a defensive tackle. New tackle Justin Jefferies was playing defensive line last year, and Zipp Duncan was a tight end. Starting center Eric Scott got one start last year, but the year before, he was a tight end. That’s not to say they won’t be good, because plenty of good offensive linemen started at other positions. However, getting good with such a quick change isn’t going to be easy. They’ve already given up six sacks in two games.

Now, defense has suddenly become interesting. Before the season, I would have clearly listed UL. UK had a terrible defense last year, while UL’s was their best in years. UL did lose some people (Amobi Okoye was a first round pick), but all of their starters and many of their reserves played last year. The defensive coordinator stayed, so I rationally thought defense wouldn’t be an issue. Then Middle Tenn. rolled up 555 yards on them in week 2. Not exactly the performance I was expecting. On the other hand, UK gave up over 300 yards rushing to Kent State. If not for poor clock management, a dumb interception and an unforced fumble by Kent, UK could have easily been down three touchdowns in the first half. Now, both teams regrouped in the second half and allowed only one more touchdown, but it does raise the issue of 77-73 shootout. As a UL fan, I do have one thing to hold onto. These guys have performed well defensively in the past, so the problems could be correctable. UK struggled defensively last year, and while they may have improved, how much?

It is an interesting game. With it being the third game of the year, I should have more information before making a prediction, but the defensive turds from week two actually make it harder. UK’s offensive improvement last year and UL’s defensive regression this year add to the problem. The fact that it’s played at Commonwealth Stadium certainly makes a UK win more possible. However, I still think UL is going to pull it out. Unlike a lot of rapid Louisville fans, I’m not going to predict a four touchdown win, but I would certainly feel comfortable taking UL and give the 6 ½ point spread.