I love horse racing. Yet, the Kentucky Derby kills me every year. If I was smart, I would bet the undercard, but skip the Derby itself. There are just too many horses in the field. It looks like a traffic jam every year. If it's the best horse race in the country, a nag like Giacomo wouldn't win it like 2005. Granted, this year Barbaro is actually quite a good horse. In fact, I hope he wins the Triple Crown, because even though I didn't win money on him, he's a quality horse. Which is important. I could have handled Smarty Jones winning the Triple Crown, but not Giacomo (worst Derby winner in my lifetime) or even Funny Cide (still think Jerry Bailey blew it with Empire Maker). Of coure, I'm still ticked Afleet Alex didn't win the Derby last year. I had money on him in all three Triple Crown races.
In hindsight, I'm kicking myself for going with Lawyer Ron over Barbaro. When I make my Derby pick, I throw out most of the long shots as having no chance then work my way through the rest. I may throw a horse out because of bad post position (Brother Derek) or recent race that seems like a fluke (Sinister Minister in the Bluegrass Stakes). When I work it down, I look for somewhat of a long shot as a saver bet (this year was Point Determined), a long shot to hit the board without winning (Keyed Entry who decided to beat Sinister Minister to the punch in killing himself with a fast pace) and the horse for the big bet. I worked it down to Lawyer Ron and Barbaro. And I took Lawyer Ron.
Once again, in hindsight, I should have gone with Barbaro. Good post position, a sire I like (Dynaformer) and one of my favorite jockeys (Edgar Prado rode Birdstone at 36-1 when he beat Smarty Jones in the Belmont with my money riding on him). Instead, I let sentiment get the best of me. Lawyer Ron's recently deceased owner was from Owensboro (where I went to college), his trainer has been around 100 years (give or take a few) and he was being ridden by my grandmother's favorite jockey since Pat Day retired (John McKee used to live across the street from her). Sadly, I justified my decision by thinking Barbaro might bounce (follow a win with a poor showing) from the Florida Derby. Unfortunately, Lawyer Ron was the one that flopped.
The worst part is that I also gave Lawyer Ron to Phil, and I'll probably hear him gripe about not giving him the winner (if it was easy, I'd handicap for a living). If it makes you feel better, Phil, I probably dropped more money on the race than you did.
4 years ago
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