The Belmont

For the seventh time since 1997, a horse is going for the Triple Crown in the Belmont. Big Brown will be a heavy favorite, but contrary to the belief of his trainer, Rick "I'm An Ass" Dutrow, it's not a 'foregone conclusion'. The last six who tried were Smarty Jones (04), Funny Cide (03), War Emblem (02), Charismatic (99), Real Quiet (98) and Silver Charm (97), and they all failed. Frankly, I don't think Big Brown is as good as Smarty, Real Quiet or Silver Charm. It's just the Belmont can be a killer. However, while most people talk about losing the Triple Crown at Belmont, ten horses since 1994 have won at least two legs of the Triple Crown since 1994. Thunder Gulch (95) won the Kentucky Derby and Belmont. Tabasco Cat (94), Point Given (01) and Afleet Alex (05) only lost the Derby. Fusaichi Pegasus (00) won the Derby and probably would have won the Belmont if he hadn't skipped it. I think all of those horses are better than Big Brown.

The point isn't that Big Brown will lose the Belmont. I'm not sure he will because with Casino Drive dropping out, it's not that good of a field. The point is that better horses than him in the past 15 years have failed. I think Big Brown is a product of a bad year for three year olds. Last year's crop of three year olds was great. You had Street Sense, Curlin and Rags To Riches all winning Triple Crown races. All three were really good horses (Curlin has become a great one), and that doesn't include Hard Spun who was also a really good horse. The fact that some horses were spread out almost 50 lengths back shows the Derby field sucked. And the Preakness had no Grade I Stakes winners besides Big Brown. That's the worst Preakness field I've ever heard of. With Casino Drive out, Big Brown isn't facing much in the Belmont either.

Does that mean Big Brown will win? Well, if I had to bet my life on a horse in the Belmont, it would certainly be Big Brown, but I'm not going to bet my money on him. Mainly because his odds will suck. Plus, I don't want to root for him to win. I like the horse fine. I like his jockey. I even like one of his sponsors and I'm hoping they use Hooter girls as hot walkers. But I don't like his trainer. I don't like his owners. Plus, I don't think it will be that good for the sport. I think if Big Brown wins the Derby, he'll never race again. They'll make up some excuse not to run him, and with him having hoof problems, it's already there. If he loses, we may get to see Big Brown face Curlin in the Breeder's Cup. If he beats Curlin, then I will agree on his greatness. If he retires at 6-0 with wins over a bunch of scrub horses, I'll think of him as unproven. I won a lot of money a lot of money when Birdstone went off at 36-1 and beat Smarty Jones in the '04 Belmont, but I was only betting against Smarty over the odds. Not because I didn't want him to win. I don't want Big Brown to win.

And I'm a lot more confident on Big Brown losing the Belmont than I was about him losing the Preakness. I didn't think there was any chance of him losing that one. Now, he's had another foot problem which may not be anything. But you never know. Plus, he's a marked horse. There have been accusations in the past that horses have "ganged up" on a favorite. The theory is they lose intentionally in order to stop another horse from winning. Well, I think it's pretty obvious the lesser horses will go after a favorite, but I really find it hard to believe that a jockey in a big stakes race would intentionally lose out of spite for another horse or its connections. A cheapie race, sure. Not a Triple Crown race. The Belmont purse is $1 million. The first place horse gets 60% with the jockey getting 10% of that. Winning the Belmont means the jockey will get about $60K for 2 1/2 minutes work. Second gets you $20K. Why would you take a chance on that kind of money? I watched the Smarty Jones loss in that Belmont when the jockeys for Rock Hard Ten and Eddington supposedly ran a different style than normal in an effort just to cause Smarty Jones to not get comfortable which led to his loss. Those horses also faded after rushing Smarty Jones which allowed Birdstone to catch Smarty. Well, Eddington and Rock Hard Ten faced Smarty in the Preakness when Smarty won while pulling away. Would it really make sense for those two horses to run the Belmont the same way when they couldn't stay close three weeks before? I don't buy it. I think their jockeys just wanted to get Smarty Jones off his game while hoping they could be there at the end.

So, if Big Brown gets knocked off his game, who can beat him. Well, Casino Drive is out. I'm also throwing out Da' Tara. He'll set the pace, but I can't see him holding on at a mile and half. Anak Nakal hasn't hit the board in 2008 with big losses to a lot of these same horses. Toss those quick. Guadalcanal is a strange case. I'm not sure how he ended up in this race since he's 0-5. Supposedly, his trainer put him in because he's proved in his last race that he can go this distance by barely losing. Except that was on turf. He hasn't proven anything dirt. The fact that his trainer isn't an idiot makes me really curious. I still can't justify him in any way, but I might throw some show money at him. Ready's Echo is another intriguing horse, but one I just can't talk myself into. Some thoughts are that he may like the distance, and he seems to have the ability to close well, but his starts suck. If he can't make up ground in the Peter Pan Stakes, I can't see him doing it here.

That leaves four horses. Tale of Ekati has done well on this track where he won the Wood Memorial, but I'm still not sure he's got the speed to do it. Macho Again and Ichabod Crane were driving at the end of the Preakness, but weren't really close to Big Brown. However, the Belmont is quite a bit longer than the Preakness (in racing terms anyway). Both those horses are rally horses who may be capable of running him down if there is much of a pace. Of the two, I prefer Macho Again as I did in the Preakness. The last contender is Denis of Cork. This horse finished third in the Derby and was well far back. But he was on the move after spending most of the race in last place. So, there's a good chance that with the extra distance and an early pace, he might be able to run down Big Brown. Denis of Cork also hasn't raced since the Derby. Birdstone and Empire Maker were the last two horses to stop a Triple Crown attempt at the Belmont, and both hadn't raced since the Derby. A fresh horse with a rally style running could be the best bet to pull off an upset. I'm probably going to go with with either Macho Again or Denis of Cork across the board. I'll also wait until the post parade to see how they look on the track before making a decision.

There have been some schmucks who are already putting Big Brown in the same class as Secretariat. Well, even if he wins the Triple Crown, I won't put him in Secretariat's class. Not unless he can finish like this: