A Few Random Thoughts On The NCAAs

I wonder how local teams are going to do. In true NCAA fashion, instead of pairing one of the top mid-major teams, Drake, against a lower level BCS conference team, Drake plays Western Kentucky which should make Western one and done. Actually a lot of mid-majors (Gonzaga/Davidson, Butler/S Ala, UNLV/Kent St, ) are facing each other in the first round. It's almost like the NCAA was protecting BCS teams by making sure the number of mid-majors advancing in the first round was limited. Not that I would suspect ulterior motives. I still don't think UK has an NCAA resume (and I was overrating them the first time I mentioned it because I thought they had won at Miss St when in fact, they lost that one giving them no good road wins). Dayton's RPI was 25 places higher and they beat UL on the road for one more quality road win than UK, and UAB had a higher RPI and beat UK head to head. However, UK's in and they did get a nice first round matchup. Marquette doesn't have much inside which is how you hurt this UK team (too bad Stanford will probably be waiting in the second round with two 7 footers). Still, it is Marquette. While it only seems like UK is always losing to Marquette in the tournament, it's only been the last two times they met (and 4 of the last six).

Now Louisville is in an interesting situation. They face Boise State to open and then the winner of Oklahoma/St. Joseph. None of which scares me. Unless UL hits only 20% from long range and about half their free throws. Like they did their last two games. Then Boise State could win their first tournament game ever. Some Louisville fans are worried about Tennessee, but I'm almost more concerned about Butler who I think may take UT out. To begin with, UT doesn't do that well outside of the state of Tennessee. They struggled to put anyone away outside of Knoxville in the latter part of the season. Plus, their strength is perimeter while their weakness is teams who like to bang it inside. UL defends the perimeter and likes to bang inside. I think Butler may match up well with the Vols because they can work the shot clock and hit the three. That's the style UK used, and one that UT struggled with in both games.

Now, if UL gets past them into the Elite Eight, the most likely opponent is North Carolina. Easily. The only team in the top bracket I can see giving the Tarheels a game might be Washington State and that's only if they can get the tempo into a slow down game. Otherwise, North Carolina might be the most complete team out there. I actually think UL could match up well with Tyler Hansbrough except it's Tyler Hansbrough. David Padgett will foul out in mid-second half. Derrick Caracter will only clock five minutes before he fouls out. Terence Farley is still Terence Farley. Oh, and Hansbrough might finish with two fouls. Best game plan may be to have Caracter eat him. Literally.

So, who is going to win it all? Here's a way to narrow it down. Only teams that finish in the top 15 in the RPI ever win the NCAA tournament. So, those 15 are: Tenn, UNC, Memphis, UCLA, Texas, Duke, Kansas, Georgetown, Xavier, Drake, Wisconsin, Vandy, Louisville, Stanford and Pitt. We'll narrow it down by throwing Tennessee out since the number one team in RPI never wins the tournament, plus they're in the SEC and I wouldn't pick any SEC team to win it all this year. So, out goes Vandy too. I feel the same way about the Big 10 so see you Wisconsin. I would toss out Xavier because they're nickname came from a candy bar. Duke's overrated so they won't win it. The winner almost always is a 3 seed or higher. Toss Pitt and Drake. So, that narrows it down to 9. Pick one of those for the title. Unless you're in one of my pools. In that case, take UK. I saw a sports columnist who crunched a bunch of numbers (based on scoring and shooting percentages) and said only North Carolina and Kansas had the numbers to win it all. That's why I'm picking Memphis. Kansas chokes every year under Bill Self, and North Carolina just gives me the feeling of a team waiting to be knocked off.

Truly random thoughts:
It's a crock that North Carolina can make the Final Four without ever leaving the state of North Carolina. I realize that higher seeds are given a certain geographical advantage, but that's ridiculous.

Besides, how does UNC get that, and Memphis is put in a bracket with Texas when their possible Elite Eight matchup would be in Houston?

I know others have said it, but UCLA got a gift bracket. The highest seeds in this region are Duke (overrated), Xavier (come on), UCONN (can't win a grinder; perfect match for UCLA), Drake (come on again), and some other teams. This is the most solid Final Four pick.

How did the ACC have only four teams in the tournament if they had the highest conference RPI?

How did a rather weak SEC get six teams in?

Did Oral Roberts really have a brother named Anal or was that just an 80s punchline?

I saw another column that asked a rather intriguing question. Why is the play-in game in Dayton? I'm sure Dayton likes basketball, but I've never heard it called a hoops mecca. Besides, since you're already shafting two team by making them play this "extra" game, at least send them to Miami or some other tourist attraction.

Does anyone remember when Indiana looked like a top one or two seed?