NATIONAL FOOTBALL LEAGUE

Here are my predictions for which NFL teams will make the playoffs. Yes, I know the season is two weeks old. I would make the argument that the crapshoot aspect of the NFL means doing your picks before you have a chance to see how offseason changes are affecting the team is rather silly. But I just didn't get around to doing this until now. But there is some truth to that argument. Some teams (think New York Jets) have such a drastic makeover, you really can't gauge how the new parts will work together until you get a look at them. Plus, there could be an injury problem in the first half of the first game that could drastically alter the expectations of that team. Hypothetically, of course. Of course, making predictions like this at any time is silly. If I nail it, I'll gloat in a post about it. If I miss badly, I'll be posting about how much I hate Christmas shopping.

When I say crapshoot aspect of the NFL, I'm talking about the heavy turnover in playoff teams each season. Last year, half the playoff teams (6 of 12) were new. In the NBA, only four new teams made this year's playoff, and that's with 16 teams making their playoffs. So, I figure at least five playoff teams won't make it. A few are easy to toss out. I didn't think Washington was that good last year. Seattle and Jacksonville and Seattle are off to bad starts and have crushing injury problems that won't be solved anytime soon. Tennessee has some issues. But the biggest one of all (at least the biggest reach on my part) is the New York Giants. Yes, I'm predicting the Super Bowl Champs don't make the playoffs. Anyway, here's how I see the divisions breaking down.

NFC
East
Division Winner: Philadelphia - I think the Eagles and Cowboys are about even. However, I think Philly has an easier schedule. They're putting up points without their top receivers so they'll probably get better.
Also In: Dallas - Not far behind the Eagles so they'll make the playoffs. Then Jessica Simpson shows up (hopefully not trashed) and Tony Romo chokes.
Not In: New York Giants - Sure, they won the Super Bowl, but they were hot. They were also the last team in the playoffs, and now Michael Strahan has retired and Osi Somethingorother is out for the year. This team got hot due to pressure defense. That's gone now. Washington - I didn't think they'd make it last year. Clinton Portis will get hurt. The rest of the team is overrated compared to their salary.

North
Division winner: Green Bay - Will Aaron Rodgers look this good all year? Probably not. However, watching him play shows he'll still be good enough. Contrary to popular belief, it wasn't Brett Favre and a supporting cast. It was a strong cast making Favre look good.
Also In: Chicago - This team looks a lot like their last Super Bowl team except at quarterback. Running game looks good with Matt Forte. Defense is healthy. Kyle Orton is actually an improvement over Rex Grossman because he's less likely to loss the game on his own.
Not In: Minnesota - Good defense. Great running back. No quarterback. No playoffs. Detroit - They suck.

South
Division winner and only team in: Carolina - They won their first two without Steve Smith. Good defense. Strong running game (even before rookie stud Jonathan Stewart). Jake Delhomme a quality quarterback because the league doesn't have many quality quarterbacks.
Not In: New Orleans - Great offense. Great fantasy team. Deuce McAllister is coming off a major injury. Reggie Bush isn't an every down back. Their defense still sucks. Lots of points scored. Lots of points given up. Tampa Bay - Got in last year because Delhomme was hurt and New Orleans blew it. Now they're benching Jeff Garcia for Brian Griese. Quick trip to the bottom. Atlanta - They suck. Too bad they can't play Detroit every week.

West
Division winner and only team in: Arizona - Kurt Warner, Anquan Boldin, Larry Fitzgerald. This team can put up points. The rest of the division sucks. Someone has to win it.
Not In: Seattle - Gotta go back something like 5 years since Seattle didn't win the division. Most years, no one else was worthy. When your leading receiver is a tight end I've never heard of and you're signing Billy McMullen and Keary Colbert as possible starters, you're in trouble. When you bring back serial drunk Koren Robinson, you're screwed. San Francisco - Good quarterback. Decent defense. No receivers. Quarterback absolutely sucks. St. Louis - May be the worst team in the league even though Marc Bulger, Steven Jackson and Torry Holt are proven offensive commodities. Defense is atrocious. Offensive line is horrible. May not win a game.

AFC
East
Division winner: Buffalo - The defense is decent. The quarterback is adequate. Lee Evans is good. Marshawn Lynch is really good. Tom Brady is out.
Also In: New England - Tough call without Brady but they have an easy schedule and already are 2-0. Matt Cassel isn't that good, and they won't hit 18 wins, but 9 should do it. That means they have to go .500 the rest of the way. With their defense and receivers carrying Cassel, that's doable.
Not In: New York Jets - I know they're the chic pick with Brett Favre, but I think the talent in Green Bay hid his age. I think Thomas Jones and Laveranues Coles are pretty good. The rest seem okay. That okay got them 4 wins last year. Favre isn't enough to get them more. Miami - Worst team in the league last year will be better especially if Chad Pennington stays healthy. Still won't get them near the playoffs.

North
Division winner and only team in: Pittsburgh - I'm biased, but realistic. Pittsburgh has as good a shot as anyone to go to the Super Bowl. The defense is good. Quarterback is a whiner, but he can play. Running game is strong. Good receivers. Very complete. My only concern is the offensive line isn't as strong as in the past.
Not In: Cleveland - This team is still pretty good, but they snuck up on people last year and still didn't make the playoffs. They aren't really better so they still won't make the playoffs. Baltimore - Good defense. That's about it. They'll ruin Joe Flacco who may not be that good to begin with. Cincinnati - This team is bad. Chad Johnson changing his name to Chad Ochocinco will be the high point. Defense doesn't have talent. Offense has talent, but talent that can't play as a team.

South
Division winner and only team in: Indianapolis - Not as good as before. Peyton Manning will have to work his way back. Their defense isn't all that great. Joseph Addai is good. Marvin Harrison is on his down slide, but the other receivers are talented. The reason they'll win is the other AFC South teams have bigger problems.
Not In: Houston - I like Houston. They could grab the last playoff spot from New England. Matt Schaub is pretty good. Andre Johnson is good. Their defense is good. Losing 38-17 to open the season makes me suspect. Jacksonville - This is a team off to a slow start due to injuries that will probably put them too far behind to make a playoff run. Their quarterback is good enough, but they've relied on their running game for their offense, but having most of your offensive linemen hurt kills that and they don't have the receivers to change styles. Tennessee - Another team with good defense that will be hamstrung by other "problems". Namely their franchise quarterback may be suicidal. I think Vince Young's other problems (he hasn't developed like he should have) is a bigger drawback, but I don't think Kerry Collins gets them to the playoffs.

West
Division winner: Denver - Jay Cutler is playing great. Brandon Marshall and Eddie Royal are holding down the receiver position. Surprisingly, I don't think much of any of the Bronco running backs. I'm not real keen on their defense. Still, with their (possibly tainted) win over San Diego, they're in the driver's seat in the West.
Also in: San Diego - They're 0-2. They've lost Shawne Merriman's steroid enhanced physique. Norv Turner is still the coach. I still think they've got too much talent to miss the playoffs.
Not in: Oakland - Great running game. Defense has some big names, but they aren't living up to their salaries. Jamarcus Russell ain't going to get it done. Too much disfunction to be successful. Kansas City - They suck. Outside of Larry Johnson and Tony Gonzalez, I don't see too many guys who could start for better teams.