The Kentucky Derby

I don't know why I get so pumped about the Derby. It can be a pain in the ass to handicap and this year is worse than most. Normally, it should be a good betting race for me because I don't like betting favorites because of low payouts, and the Derby is rarely won by the favorite. Since Spectacular Bid in 1979, Smarty Jones and Fusaichi Pegasus are the only winners who went off as the betting favorite (although I think Street Sense was in a virtual tie with Curlin last year). That's not to say it was only long shots. Horses like Silver Charm, Sunday Silence and Winning Colors had lower odds than Smarty Jones' 4.1-1. They just beat a bigger favorite. However, in the past 10 years, five winners had odds higher than 10-1 with three of those going off at more than 20-1.

Why is this? One is the huge field. This race often has 20 horses which means traffic is a bigger problem than a normal race. Also, they're coming from all over the country for this race so past performances aren't uniform. This year is even tougher because so many tracks have gone to synthetic surfaces which means performances could be skewed. The second favorite, Colonel John, has never run on real dirt. Keeneland's Polytrack looks like it was made from dryer lint, and some horses ran on it like it was dryer lint. Pyro looked like a monster horse going into the Bluegrass Stakes there. And then finished 10th, and now we have to wonder if he suddenly sucks or just didn't like the surface. In his defense, the other stakes winners also finished at the back of the pack.

I haven't fully decided who I'm going with, but I have narrowed it down to four horses. Considering my Derby track record, you might want to avoid those four. But first, I threw out six horses immediately because I don't think they have a shot at winning. Which means you should strongly consider them. Those were:
Anak Nakal - This horse is slow.
Eight Belles - This is a filly that should have run in the Kentucky Oaks. Nothing against fillies, but they rarely win the Derby. Now she's a big, solid looking horse who will have a 5 pound weight advantage, but previous fillies who won the Derby had faced the boys before. This horse hasn't.
Visionaire - Not a bad horse, but I don't think he can make the mile and a quarter.
Z Humor - His speed makes Anak Nakal look fast. And it's been dropping every race this year.
Smooth Air - Sprinter. Who had a fever earlier in the week.
Bob Black Jack - Another sprinter. He'll probably jump to the lead, but I can't see him hanging on.

After that, I thought some more and threw out another four although I took a longer look at them:
Big Truck - More of a tactical speed horse which is good in the Derby. Just don't think he has enough speed. Or enough class.
Cowboy Cal - This is a turf horse whose only good non-turf run was in the Bluegrass Stakes. I don't think he can handle real dirt.
Recapturetheglory - Won the Illinois Derby, but he's another sprinter who I don't think can hold the lead. However, if the odds are good, I could see him pulling a Hard Spun or Lion Heart and leading most of the way before being caught in the stretch. So, if the odds are still good, a place or show bet could be an option.
Gayego - He did win the Arkansas Derby which has been a good path to Derby victory in recent times. I don't have a good feeling about him (which means I should probably bet him) and I don't think he can make the longer distance. If the Arkansas Derby had been much longer, he would have lost.

Then came five more that were hard to throw out, but I had to just to get it manageable:
Tale of Ekati - This horse did win the Wood Memorial which was good, but I can't keep thinking about how sluggish he looked in the Louisiana Derby (run on a similar track to Churchill). Like Gayego, I think he would have been caught at a longer distance.
Adriano - Another turf horse who did well on Polytrack. Problem is he looked like crap on real dirt. It was still tough to throw him out, because Edgar Prado had a choice of horses and took this one.
Monba - The way Keeneland was playing, his win in the Bluegrass Stakes would normally have caused me to ignore him. However, he did win an allowance on dirt. Still, I don't trust him.
Denis of Cork - Was looking great until he shanked away the Illinois Derby at even money. He's a closer which is a plus, and I could see him win this, but he doesn't have the synthetic track excuse to make me forget he finished fifth in his last race.
Cool Coal Man - Toughest horse for me to toss out. He bombed in his last race, but it was the Bluegrass Stakes. I like his pedigree, but I'm tossing him out because unlike Pyro, he ran well early in the Bluegrass before faltering.

Then there is Big Brown. Big Brown will be the favorite in the Derby, and a lot of people are talking him up as the next big thing. He looked incredible in winning the Florida Derby. His previous two races were also huge wins. His trainer is basically saying he can't be beat by any horse in the Derby. I threw him out anyway. To begin with, the Florida win was great, but his first race was a turf race that got moved to the dirt because of rain (which means he beat a bunch of turf horses). Then he won an allowance race. That means the Florida Derby was only his third race. Ever. And it was because he had bad feet which could be a problem. Certainly can't think this is a sure thing. His connections hope they have another Barbaro (went from turf to dirt) who won the Florida Derby before crushing the Kentucky Derby. I would lean more towards Curlin who has turned into a great horse, but he went into the Kentucky Derby with only three previous starts and lost.

Plus, Big Brown's trainer has had drug problems (for himself and his horses) so I question his judgment. I especially question his arrogance in pushing his horse. I like a confident trainer, but he's gone way beyond it. His horse has only three starts and Dutrow thinks no one can beat him? It makes me think he'll find a way to screw this up. It reminds me of Empire Maker (a much better horse than Funny Cide) who lost because he ran four wide the entire way around the track. I'm still convinced trainer Bobby Frankel and jockey Jerry Bailey were so convinced they had the best horse that they thought they could do that and still win. They didn't. Dutrow did have a late pick in the gate draw, but taking the 20th spot was insane. He'll have the other speed horses on his inside as he tries to get in good position. He doesn't make it, and Big Brown could have a bad trip.

So, who I am leaning to?
Colonel John - My only concern with him is that he's never raced outside of California which is all synthetic tracks (although not Polytrack like Keeneland). He looks good in training at Churchill. My only concern which may keep me from betting him to win is the rain. It's one thing to go from synthetic to dirt, but it could be a bigger problem to go from synthetic to mud.
Pyro - That Bluegrass Stakes is weighing heavy. The only reason I can even try to overlook it is by recognizing that all the stakes winners on dirt who ran in the Bluegrass flopped. Still, he looked really good before that. Based on his affinity for the Fairgrounds in Louisiana, I think Pyro could take to Churchill's track. Still, the fear is that he didn't run well at Keeneland because something other than the track is wrong with him.
Court Vision - Good long shot play. He hasn't had a great year, but he was driving at the end of the Wood Memorial. I think if he had made his move a little earlier, that race would have been his. He doesn't run bad races, and I think he'll like Churchill.
Z Fortune - Another good long shot play. He had a wide trip in the Arkansas Derby and was still in good position at the end. I think he'll get a better trip coming out of the six slot which means he can pull this thing out.

So, there. Those are the four horses to avoid while I'm throwing my money down the crapper.