Pre March Madness

A few days before March Madness begins, and I still don’t know who to pick to win it all. There’s been too much mediocrity in college basketball this year. At some point during the season I was high on Florida, UNC, Kansas and UCLA. Then all, but Kansas picked up some ugly losses although Florida and UNC redeemed themselves in their conference tournaments. I think the Big 10 sucks so I don’t trust Ohio State or Wisconsin. Some second tier teams have warts like Memphis (CUSA schedule) and Texas (while Kevin Durant is incredible, Texas is too dependent on him). So, does that leave me with Kansas? I don’t know. They were knocked out of the NCAAs in the first round the past two years which concerns me. However, a year’s seasoning may make a difference. One drawback to Kansas doing well is every time they mention their starting center, the song “I Feel For You” will run through my head. Piss on it. I may go with Georgetown.

One thing I do know is that I’m not predicting a local team past the Sweet Sixteen, if they are lucky enough to get there. Louisville had been on a roll to end the season, but started showing their bad habits in the Big East tournament. Actually, I still wasn’t sold during their winning streak, because most of it was against scrubs. Unless bubble teams Toothless Redneck Central Tech and Syracuse get a bid, UL would have only beaten two teams (Pitt and Marquette) who are considered NCAA locks. And they needed a miracle three pointer to beat Marquette. Now, considering that earlier in the season, UL dumped games against Dayton and UMASS which questioned their ability to compete in the Atlantic 10, I’m pretty happy where they ended up. At that point, I didn’t think they would make the Big East tournament, let alone the NCAA. Still, I don’t see a big NCAA run, because they are not mentally tough. They’ve let too many teams come back when they’ve had a big lead because they stop doing what got them the lead (mainly Terrance Williams starts jacking up bad three point shots).

On the other hand, UK is just mentally inept. They protect the ball about as well as a crackwhore does her dignity. They struggle to hold a lead against bad teams while letting good teams build an insurmountable lead. They just find a way to lose. The loss to Mississippi State is UK basketball in a nutshell this year. I won’t get into whether the lane violation call should have been made (I think we all know there is a grand SEC conspiracy against UK because the last thing the league wants is UK playing on the weekend of the tournament), because the Bulldogs aren’t very good, but UK just couldn’t put them away. Then, on the last play of overtime, they didn’t even get a shot off. Really, does UK even run plays out of a timeout? Ironically, while watching the first half of UK/MSU at work, we were discussing whether or not Edgar Sosa walked at the end of regulation when tying up the UL/WVU game (he did since three steps is a violation even in the NBA), and my boss said I should feel lucky because UK wouldn’t even have gotten a shot off with only 4 seconds left. Then, an hour later, no shot.

While their 3-6 record to finish the season has some people listing UK as a bubble team, I will be very surprised if UK is left out. Of course, based on their digression at the end of the season, I will also be very surprised if they make it past the first weekend. Which brings up the big question – What happens to Tubby? Actually, nothing. He may be forced to change his assistants, but he isn’t resigning (why lose the $4 million buyout) nor will UK take the PR hit and fire him. This isn’t Mike Shula getting canned by Alabama a year after a 10 win season, because he only had one good season there. To begin with, Smith does have the title, is two years removed from an Elite Eight and has never missed the NCAA tournament at UK (assuming I’m right about them getting a bid in about an hour). That alone would make firing him hard, but the real reason is Adolph Rupp U. is not going to fire their first black head coach with that kind of record, especially a year after Glory Road came out. So, unless we find out Smith has been having an "inappropriate relationship" with Sheray Thomas (which would explain how Thomas averaged almost 20 minutes per game), he’s not going to get fired.

I’ve actually been surprised by the lack of real anger at Smith for another rather depressing year. Most UK fans I know are just resigned rather than pissed. Sure, you get such fun groups as the Dynasty Defenders and the irate hillbillies may not have access to message boards and radio talk shows probably screen the truly angry so not to lose access to UK athletics (Tubby’s show just stops taking calls), but I still think the reaction has been subdued. Sure, I wasn’t expecting a cross burning in Tubby’s front yard. Okay, maybe I was, but outside of one newspaper ad and Dave no longer singing that Tubby’s the best black coach in America, it’s pretty tame. I remember when Bill Curry was at Alabama. Forget his UK career for the moment. In three years at Alabama, Curry won the Sugar Bowl and compiled the highest winning percentage of any Bama coach in the post Bear Bryant era. Yet, people were hiring moving vans to go park in front of his house because they were so unhappy with him.

I think the only way Smith goes this year is if UK flames out in the first round, Mitch Barnhart publicly insists on specific changes and Smith says no. So, does Tubby need to go? Rick Pitino says no, but Tubby’s his former assistant, plus the longer Tubby coaches UK to relative mediocrity, Pitino’s record at UK looks better and better (ironically, Pitino is struggling to beat him while at UL or it could be worse for Smith). Truthfully, if he coached UL, I would want Smith gone. There is a list being emailed around comparing Tubby’s UK career with Pitino’s (win percentages, games ranked in top 10, Final Fours, etc), and what’s remarkable was how poorly Tubby’s record compared even when the two years UK was on probation are included in Pitino’s record. Tubby took over a team that had been to back-to-back championship games, won a title and hasn’t been back to the Final Four since. Since then, they’ve been just as likely to have a team mired in controversy as a good one. Tubby says he’s the man to get UK back to the top, but he didn’t really do it the first time. It’s been a gradual slide since, and they’ve often been pretty ugly to watch too. So, why would I think Smith is the one to turn it around? Yet, as a UL fan, my suggestion is sign him to an extension.