NCAA First & Second Round Thoughts

I'm actually doing quite well this year even with my first round upsets flopping for the most part. VCU and Winthrop winning the first round wasn't that big an upset because Duke and Notre Dame were seeded too high. However, round two was really good to me as I got 14 out of the Sweet Sixteen correct. Even better, I still have seven of my elite eight alive. Damn Texas screwed me. I was concerned they relied too much on Kevin Durant, and to be honest, I had no idea Southern Cal was that good. I hope they stay good enough to beat UNC and bust up some more brackets. My best pick of the whole tournament so far has to be UNLV. For one, I had seen them play a few games, and they were better than a seven seed. Plus, I thought the Big 10 was trash, and Wisconsin was an overrated team that build up a nice resume only by beating up scrub Big 10 teams. That's why Ohio State is the only Big 10 team left, and quite frankly, they should have lost to Xavier. If Xavier's Justin Gage hits both free throws with 9 seconds left, it's a four point game. Actually, if the referees had the guts to call Greg Oden for a intentional foul (you can't really say someone is going for the ball when they body block someone four feet out of bounds), the miss wouldn't have mattered because Xavier would have had the ball. Then those dickheads from McCarthy's would have gone home unhappy.

Well, I was right about the local teams not making it past the weekend. Eastern Kentucky almost embarrassed themselves by getting down 27 points in the first half. Then they completely redeemed themselves by pulling within four points in the second. Unfortunately, they couldn't hold on and ended up losing by 19. Still, it was an impressive comeback and further shows North Carolina's weakness in holding a lead. The future looks bright for Eastern Kentucky as they made the tournament for the second time in three years, and they did it with only one player who played in both games. Previously, Eastern hadn't been in the tournament since 1979. Of course, coach Jeff Neubauer could now be hot property to move up just like his predecessor Travis Ford. So, who knows where the program goes.

Louisville surprised me by playing Texas A&M as well as they did. I knew they would beat Stanford, because Stanford had two 7 footers and crappy guard play. I thought they would have a lot of trouble with the Aggies who have one of the best players in the country in Acie Law IV. UL still made a game of it with a chance to go ahead on free throws with 30 seconds left (both missed) and again on a last second three (missed). They stayed in the game because they had a ton of screaming Cardinal fans in attendance, and Edgar Sosa scored 31 points. By scoring 31 points, Sosa kept the ball out of Terrance Williams' hands which means he couldn't jack up a bunch of stupid threes. Since I consider Texas A&M to be a Final Four caliber team, a three point loss to them isn't exactly devastating. Especially since the future looks so bright. Assuming no one transfers or makes a stupid jump attempt to the NBA, the only senior who did much was Brandon Jenkins, and he spent much of this year hurt. Their late season spurt was keyed by four freshman who needed maturing, and I expect as sophomores, they will really step up. If they do, and David Padgett and Juan Palacios don't die from another series of freak injuries, I think UL will have one of the deeper, talented teams in the country next year.

Unfortunately (not for me, but for UK fans), I don't think things are too bright for UK. They did have a good win over Villanova, because they kept feeding Randolph Morris instead of taking stupid, hurried shots (completely surprising me). They acquitted themselves pretty well against Kansas, although even when they pulled within four points in the second half, it really didn't seem likely they were going to come all the way back. Especially when Morris got into foul trouble and Bradley, Crawford and Meeks reverted to the stupid, hurried shots. Actually, I think UK did well considering how bad a matchup Kansas was for them. I said before that UK has enough talent to knock off a big boy, but I thought they needed to play their best game and have a bad one from Kansas to pull that off. Actually, I was surprised how many people thought UK was going to upset Kansas. It wasn't just the doofus at McCarthy's (UK's stout perimeter defense held Kansas to 63% shooting from the 3 point line), a woman I work with guaranteed at the end of the Villanova game that UK would beat Kansas because "they wanted it bad". Yeah. Kansas wins by 40, while UK outlasts a decent, but not stellar Villanova team. Only one of those teams really wants it. That's like me saying Phil wants a hooker without herpes really bad, but Jon doesn't care what she's got (strategically placed comment to enrage Phil; unconcerned about Jon who can't control his punches and only attacks garbage cans). Rick Bozich of the Louisville Courier-Journal actually thought the "March pressure" would get to Kansas after being bounced in the first round the past two years. Excuse me? While I don't really believe it, media reports have probably convince the UK players that they are playing for their coach's job. That's pressure. The fact is that Kansas has the kind of player UK used to have about 10 years ago (and lots of them). UK's only chance was to turn it into a half court game and feed Morris. They did and still lost by 12. They just don't have the horses that Kansas has. Besides, I just saw Kansas come back from a huge deficit to win the Big 12 tournament. Lately, I've been watching UK come from ahead to lose to the Mississippi States of the world.

And I'm not sure if UK will have the horses next year. The big problem is that Morris came on strong to finish out the season, and he can sign with an NBA team at any time. I don't know that he will, but it's certainly a possibility, because I'm not sure if his stock will be higher. If he goes, UK is in trouble unless they can get some recruits. That means their only centers would be Jared Carter, a redshirted project that I almost forgot was on the team, and an incoming freshman whose name I forget and looks like another project. The lose the only two power forwards who got much playing time in Bobby Perry (who had moments) and Sheray Thomas (okay, they might be better off without him). Smith apparently doesn't like Perry Stevenson, because his playing time dwindled bad, so I wouldn't be all that surprised if he left. Well, unless they don't get Patrick Patterson, because then Stevenson will be the only power forward on the roster. They bring back Joe Crawford, Ramel Bradley, Jodie Meeks and Derrick Jasper, but that's not necessarily a good thing. None of them seems to be a true point guard which means another year of turnover city unless they can pick up recruit Jai Lucas. If they can keep Morris and pick up Patterson or Lucas (or even both), I think UK will be about the same as this year (best case scenario). If Morris bolts, and they pick up Patterson and Lucas, I think they slip into the NIT. If Morris bolts and they don't get those two recruits, I'm not sure the NIT is in the picture next year.

After watching four days of basketball, I like my Kansas pick even more (which means they on't win it all). Florida and North Carolina took a while to put away Purdue and Michigan State. Other top seeds have struggled. I think talent-wise that Kansas has the athletes. It's kind of interesting that the ACC was rated the top conference this year, but North Carolina is the only one left. The SEC and PAC-10 are doing well with three teams each. The Big 12 and Big East have two each. The Big 10 has one which means they tie the ACC. And also the Mountain West (UNLV), Conference USA (Memphis), Horizon League (Butler) and Missouri Valley (S. Ill.) who all have one team still alive for the Sweet Sixteen. Of course, it's even worse for the Big 10 and ACC. The four mid-major teams combined to beat four other mid-major teams, plus four teams from major conferences. Those four major conference wins were over a Big 10 school and three ACC schools. Does this mean the ACC is a mid-major conference?