It's just driving in circles

I had hoped I wouldn't have to write about the Danica Patrick absurdity again, but it keeps coming back worse and worse. I watched an IRL race on Saturday, and sure enough, the announcers spent more time talking about Danica cruising in fourth place as they did about Scott Dixon beating Dan Wheldon way ahead of her. The write up the next day on ESPN.com made me want to vomit. It was one thing to lead with the fourth place finisher, but the author even admitted he wasn't going to get to the winner until later because he wanted to "focus on Danica's quietly impressive evening." . She did finish fourth, but she wasn't really that competitive. Only six drivers were even on the lead lap, and it was pretty obvious the winner was going to be Wheldon or Dixon.

To top that, half the article was about her possibly moving to NASCAR. The biggest joke in the world is the fact that her "possibly" moving to NASCAR is considered on the level as Juan Pablo Montoya going to stock cars from Formula One. What the Hell? Montoya is a top driver. Patrick is a novelty act. She hasn't even talked about going into the Busch Series to prepare for the Nextel Cup, but Montoya is planning on driving there to gain stock car experience. And Montoya is a much more accomplished driver. He won a CART championship when that series was still the top open wheel racing in the country. During that time, he crossed over to run the Indy 500 and completely dominated in winning. Patrick has never finished higher than fourth in any IRL race (which means she's never won a race). She needed Saturday's fourth place finish to move to ninth place in the IRL standings, and while being in the top 10 means something in NASCAR which has over 30 regular drivers, it doesn't mean much in IRL. Out of nine races, the Indy 500 (with 33) is the only IRL race to have more than 20 starters. So, there's probably only about 18 full time drivers.

Actually, I think the low number of drivers will be the reason that Patrick stays in IRL. Looking at the race results in IRL, it's very competitive at the top, but not at the bottom. The reality is that there are only six drivers in IRL that I would pick to win week in and week out. Sam Hornish, Jr., Scott Dixon, Helio Castroneves, Dan Wheldon, Vitor Meira and Tony Kanaan are way ahead of the rest. Out of nine races, 32 of the top five finishes were from that group. Only 13 were from the rest of the field. Out of 18 first and second place finishes this year, only Marco Andretti's second at the Indy 500 was from somebody other than the six.

Yet, that could work in the favor of Patrick. She's not a bad driver. She just hasn't shown me that she's better than mediocre. One thing she doesn't do is wreck, which I believe is the same reason that she doesn't win. She's not aggressive which means she spends a good chunk of the race cruising around the track. However, by not wrecking, she just needs six guys to wipe out and she's got a shot. In NASCAR, there are a whole lot more drivers capable of winning a race. Their standings change week to week, and last year's champion, Tony Stewart, has actually dropped out of the top ten. I think she'll have a much better chance at getting that elusive win in IRL. And I don't think racing is as important to her as marketing, so I can't see her wanting to drive as many races as NASCAR has.

Another reason I don't think she'll move is because her popularity won't be as high in NASCAR. It was easy to pick up a following in IRL because no one else in IRL had any fans. Think about it. Two years ago, did you ever hear of a hardcore Scott Sharp fan? If Patrick moves to NASCAR, she's going up against a race series where most of the drivers already have a fanatical following. Jeff Gordon fans aren't going to suddenly jump off his bandwagon onto Patrick's. She'll probably pick up some fans by being a novelty, but it won't be to the same level as in IRL. Plus, NASCAR fans want a winner before they root for you. The closest thing to a built in fan base that I've ever seen in NASCAR was Dale Earnhardt Jr, but he pretty much inherited his father's fans after Dale Sr.'s death. I'm just not sure Dale Jr. would be the most popular driver in NASCAR if his father hadn't died on the track (think Kyle Petty and his "following"). However, Dale Jr. didn't jump right into NASCAR. He spent two years in the Busch Series where he won a pair of championships. So, he was pretty accomplished as a racer when he moved up to the top series.

The final reason I don't think she'll make the jump is she would want to be in a top team because she can't win in IRL with a decent team, so she'll want top of the line. Marketing the driver is important in NASCAR, but I don't think it's as important for the top teams. Sure, the teams just scraping by would want her because she brings sponsor dollars. Top teams want winners, because NASCAR doesn't just have a points race for drivers, they have one for owners. Would a top team boot a proven driver to pick up someone who can cost them points? Unlikely.

I don't care if women race professionally. While I don't like it when someone is pushed ahead in sports for reasons other than merit, it's going to happen. What drives me nuts is when sports reporters are pushing an agenda instead of honestly reporting the story. With her complete lack of race course accomplishments, would anyone care if Patrick moved to NASCAR if she weren't a woman? Actually, yes. That driver would be a laughing stock if he had never finished higher than fourth on a minor circuit, and was flirting with bottom half of the standings, but thought he was good enough to jump to the top racing series in the country.